Xeneta now predicts a 5 to 15% rise in long-term air freight rates for 2026 due to ongoing Middle East conflicts disrupting supply chains.
Shipper long-term air freight rates are now expected to rise 5 to 15 per cent in 2026 instead of falling, as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt supply chains, reported a Xeneta press release.
The Oslo-based rate intelligence firm stated that its December forecast of a 5 to 10 per cent decline has been reversed by the escalation of war in February, which removed 12 per cent of global air cargo capacity overnight. Supply grew just 1 per cent in the first half, while demand rose 4 per cent, pushing combined spot and contract rates up 17 per cent year-on-year.
Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw noted that global spot rates jumped 40 per cent in May, plateauing since but not falling. He mentioned that demand continues to defy expectations, with volumes exceeding last year despite the disruption. Shippers should expect demand growth to ease in the second half as supply recovers, though fundamentals may tilt back in their favour.
Mr. Van de Wouw described missile attacks closing major Middle East hubs as the most sudden shock to air freight capacity in living memory. He stated that air freight proved its resilience, with charters resuming within days compared to slower ocean services. He warned that further geopolitical shocks could hit in the second half.
AI-related demand is booming, driven by semiconductor shipments that more than doubled in April, concentrated on the trans-Pacific corridor. In contrast, e-commerce demand has stalled, with China's low-value exports down 7 per cent in May. The European Union removed its duty-free threshold on 1 July, adding new fees that are expected to tighten trade further.
Mr. Van de Wouw indicated that e-commerce was once air freight's biggest growth pillar but is no longer the case. He cautioned that shippers must prepare for new wildcards, noting that Dubai Airport was closed by rockets in February. Xeneta has expanded its intelligence platform to include rate and volume data by special cargo type, allowing shippers to benchmark against their specific markets.
