THE two-year bull market for air cargo could be headed for a downturn, according to International Air Transport Association (IATA), reports New York's FreightWaves.
Freight volumes moved by passenger and cargo airlines contracted in March and April as manufacturing and supply chains faltered in the face of war and Covid, according to IATA analysts.
Air freight demand in March fell 5.2 per cent year on year and that seasonally adjusted volumes reached a 16-month low. Clive Data Services reported that global air cargo volumes in April declined eight per cent from 2021 after it previously reported a 4.5 per cent drop for March.
IATA's reporting lags Clive Data, which benchmarks air freight supply and demand using a different methodology and current transaction information instead of monthly weight-based statistics from airlines.
Both organisations attributed the air cargo slowdown to the conflict in Ukraine, Covid isolation measures in China that limited factory output and airport access, airport processing delays due to warehouse staffing shortages, and high inflation that is dampening consumer demand for goods.
In its monthly report, IATA said the air cargo market appears to be heading for a downturn after growth decelerated from 6.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.7 per cent in January and February, with demand tracking below 2019 levels year-to-date. Cargo-ton kilometres this year have declined more than the drop in overall global trade.
Clive said April cargo throughput contracted five per cent versus April 2019.
New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, are shrinking in all markets except the US. The Purchasing Managers' Index tracking global new export orders fell to 48.2 in March, the lowest point since July 2020.
Export orders during the first quarter fell in Germany, Japan and South Korea, and shrank in China. The inventory restocking cycle that had started during the initial rebound from the pandemic in late-2020, and that led to businesses turning to air freight to rapidly meet demand, seems to have come to an end, IATA said.
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Freight volumes moved by passenger and cargo airlines contracted in March and April as manufacturing and supply chains faltered in the face of war and Covid, according to IATA analysts.
Air freight demand in March fell 5.2 per cent year on year and that seasonally adjusted volumes reached a 16-month low. Clive Data Services reported that global air cargo volumes in April declined eight per cent from 2021 after it previously reported a 4.5 per cent drop for March.
IATA's reporting lags Clive Data, which benchmarks air freight supply and demand using a different methodology and current transaction information instead of monthly weight-based statistics from airlines.
Both organisations attributed the air cargo slowdown to the conflict in Ukraine, Covid isolation measures in China that limited factory output and airport access, airport processing delays due to warehouse staffing shortages, and high inflation that is dampening consumer demand for goods.
In its monthly report, IATA said the air cargo market appears to be heading for a downturn after growth decelerated from 6.9 per cent in 2021 to 2.7 per cent in January and February, with demand tracking below 2019 levels year-to-date. Cargo-ton kilometres this year have declined more than the drop in overall global trade.
Clive said April cargo throughput contracted five per cent versus April 2019.
New export orders, a leading indicator of cargo demand, are shrinking in all markets except the US. The Purchasing Managers' Index tracking global new export orders fell to 48.2 in March, the lowest point since July 2020.
Export orders during the first quarter fell in Germany, Japan and South Korea, and shrank in China. The inventory restocking cycle that had started during the initial rebound from the pandemic in late-2020, and that led to businesses turning to air freight to rapidly meet demand, seems to have come to an end, IATA said.
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