MANY expected the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong after the Covid crisis lockdowns to cause a surge in rates from Asia, as factories played catch following the closure, reports London's Air Cargo News.
However, TAC Index figures show that rates declined marginally in June compared with May from Hong Kong to Europe and North America and from Shanghai to North America.
Stifel senior analyst Bruce Chan declared a seasonal summer slowdown in demand could have kept pricing stable while a recent decrease in the cost of jet fuel could have helped mask any increase.
Meanwhile, the rising cost of living and a slower recovery in manufacturing capacity may also have had an impact.
'There's the possibility that demand is starting to moderate on a longer term basis,' said Mr Chan.
'Are we seeing signs that the recessionary boogeyman has arrived? Air freight volumes and rates are likely leading indicators, in our view, but we don't have clear evidence to support that thesis.'
'Annualised US GDP contracted 1.6 per cent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and US inventory to sales ratios remain near all-time lows.'
'While we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter term in nature,' said Mr Chan.
SeaNews Turkey
However, TAC Index figures show that rates declined marginally in June compared with May from Hong Kong to Europe and North America and from Shanghai to North America.
Stifel senior analyst Bruce Chan declared a seasonal summer slowdown in demand could have kept pricing stable while a recent decrease in the cost of jet fuel could have helped mask any increase.
Meanwhile, the rising cost of living and a slower recovery in manufacturing capacity may also have had an impact.
'There's the possibility that demand is starting to moderate on a longer term basis,' said Mr Chan.
'Are we seeing signs that the recessionary boogeyman has arrived? Air freight volumes and rates are likely leading indicators, in our view, but we don't have clear evidence to support that thesis.'
'Annualised US GDP contracted 1.6 per cent in 1Q22, for example, but unemployment and absolute consumer spending figures have been more resilient, and US inventory to sales ratios remain near all-time lows.'
'While we do expect a broader slowdown at some point in 2023, we believe that what is currently impacting rates is shorter term in nature,' said Mr Chan.
SeaNews Turkey
