CONTAINER import volumes at the main US containers ports continued to grow into the fall leading to a later than expected peak this year and prompting forecasts for continuing year-over-year growth in 2024.
With the US economy appearing to be on a sustainable growth path, the National Retail Federation is projecting record total sales volumes for the 2023 holiday season and strong growth in import volumes in the first quarter of 2024 compared to weak volumes early in 2023, reports The Maritime Executive, Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Import volumes surprised the retail trade group which had last month lowered its forecast for container volume in its monthly Global Port Tracker report. The group reported that it believed most imported holiday season merchandise had already arrived by September and that inbound cargo volume at the nation's major container ports was expected to slow during the remainder of 2023.
'We originally thought peak season would come in August, but imports kept growing in September and again in October,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF. Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that's a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season.
The report highlights that October's import volume was a higher than expected 2.05 million TEU at the major US ports topping September's 2.03 million TEU and marking the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month gains. October was also the first month to show year-over-year gains in volume since June 2022.
As a result, the National Retail Federation is raising its outlook for fourth-quarter import volumes by over five per cent compared to a reduced forecast issued last month. While they still project that the year's import volumes will be down 12.4 per cent versus 2022, they believe the strength of the economy will lead to continued gains going forward.
The retail group also raised its forecast for the first quarter of 2024 by 2.4 per cent versus last month now calling for import volume of 5.45 million TEU between January and March 2024. That represents monthly gains versus 2023 of between nearly seven per cent and more than 14 per cent in February which was slowed in 2023 by the Lunar New Year and an extended holiday period in Asia.
The retailers highlight that in seven of the past 10 years, import volumes have peaked in October. They believe shippers accelerated shipments in 2021 and 2022 due to the fears of port congestion and last year's threats of labour problems after the union contract expired on the West Coast.
SeaNews Turkey
With the US economy appearing to be on a sustainable growth path, the National Retail Federation is projecting record total sales volumes for the 2023 holiday season and strong growth in import volumes in the first quarter of 2024 compared to weak volumes early in 2023, reports The Maritime Executive, Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Import volumes surprised the retail trade group which had last month lowered its forecast for container volume in its monthly Global Port Tracker report. The group reported that it believed most imported holiday season merchandise had already arrived by September and that inbound cargo volume at the nation's major container ports was expected to slow during the remainder of 2023.
'We originally thought peak season would come in August, but imports kept growing in September and again in October,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF. Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that's a good sign for the economy and for the holiday shopping season.
The report highlights that October's import volume was a higher than expected 2.05 million TEU at the major US ports topping September's 2.03 million TEU and marking the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month gains. October was also the first month to show year-over-year gains in volume since June 2022.
As a result, the National Retail Federation is raising its outlook for fourth-quarter import volumes by over five per cent compared to a reduced forecast issued last month. While they still project that the year's import volumes will be down 12.4 per cent versus 2022, they believe the strength of the economy will lead to continued gains going forward.
The retail group also raised its forecast for the first quarter of 2024 by 2.4 per cent versus last month now calling for import volume of 5.45 million TEU between January and March 2024. That represents monthly gains versus 2023 of between nearly seven per cent and more than 14 per cent in February which was slowed in 2023 by the Lunar New Year and an extended holiday period in Asia.
The retailers highlight that in seven of the past 10 years, import volumes have peaked in October. They believe shippers accelerated shipments in 2021 and 2022 due to the fears of port congestion and last year's threats of labour problems after the union contract expired on the West Coast.
SeaNews Turkey