The IMF raises China's growth outlook to 4.5% by 2026, driven by stronger exports and fiscal stimulus, despite ongoing structural challenges.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced an upgraded growth forecast for China's economy, projecting an expansion of 5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. This assessment, reported by Caixin, reflects stronger exports and fiscal stimulus, despite persistent structural challenges such as weak consumption and a prolonged property slump.
This updated outlook was shared during a press briefing in Beijing, following the IMF's 2025 Article IV consultation mission. IMF staff engaged with senior officials from the central government, the People's Bank of China, various ministries, and representatives from the private sector and academia.
The revised figures represent increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the IMF's October World Economic Outlook. Additionally, inflation is projected to rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, remaining subdued compared to global trends.
