China's Russian crude oil imports surged 40% in early 2026, but analysts caution about potential declines due to rising competition from Iran.
China's imports of discounted Russian crude oil rose sharply in January and February, reported Hong Kong's South China Morning Post. However, analysts warned that volumes could ease as the war in Iran intensifies competition for Russian supplies.
Customs data showed that Russia shipped 21.8 million tons of crude to China in the first two months of the year, marking an increase of 40.9 percent from a year earlier. The value of these imports rose only 5.8 percent in US dollar terms, reflecting lower prices.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at London's Economist Intelligence Unit, stated that China had acted opportunistically by filling its stockpile when prices were subdued. He noted that Beijing likely anticipated rising geopolitical risks and moved early, before markets fully priced in the Middle East conflict.
