MAJOR industry stakeholders fear the 2025 growth rate in air cargo volumes could be cut by half, or more, from this year's elevated levels, reports New York's FreightWaves.
Expectations for air cargo heading into 2024 were for one per cent to two per cent growth. After 12 consecutive months of double-digit gains and elevated yields, many air logistics professionals are looking for the good times to continue rolling.
But in a quarterly analysis Denmark's logistics giant DSV said it expects air cargo volumes to be flat in 2025 compared to this year as businesses fully adapt to ocean supply chain disruptions that pushed more freight to air and cross-border e-commerce tapers off.
If the prediction pans out, it would mark a significant change from the 11 per cent year-on-year air traffic growth so far in 2024. It would also follow the 15-to-20-month cycle that is normal for the air cargo sector.
DSV projected the surge in e-commerce demand from Chinese marketplaces will slow because many markets are saturated with sellers and governments like the United States are preparing stricter customs regulations for low-value shipments that skirt import duties and compliance requirements.
Chinese sellers like Temu, Shein and AliExpress are already adjusting to ocean and distribute them from US warehouses, said Dimerco vice president Kathy Liu.
Freight analytics firm Xeneta is forecasting air cargo demand will grow four per cent to six per cent next year, depending on the trade lane, while capacity increases in the four per cent to five per cent range.
Volatile geopolitical factors and widespread tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump could create headwinds for air cargo in 2025. In the short term, businesses are expected to rush imports before Trump takes office and can implement tariffs early next year.
SeaNews Turkey
Expectations for air cargo heading into 2024 were for one per cent to two per cent growth. After 12 consecutive months of double-digit gains and elevated yields, many air logistics professionals are looking for the good times to continue rolling.
But in a quarterly analysis Denmark's logistics giant DSV said it expects air cargo volumes to be flat in 2025 compared to this year as businesses fully adapt to ocean supply chain disruptions that pushed more freight to air and cross-border e-commerce tapers off.
If the prediction pans out, it would mark a significant change from the 11 per cent year-on-year air traffic growth so far in 2024. It would also follow the 15-to-20-month cycle that is normal for the air cargo sector.
DSV projected the surge in e-commerce demand from Chinese marketplaces will slow because many markets are saturated with sellers and governments like the United States are preparing stricter customs regulations for low-value shipments that skirt import duties and compliance requirements.
Chinese sellers like Temu, Shein and AliExpress are already adjusting to ocean and distribute them from US warehouses, said Dimerco vice president Kathy Liu.
Freight analytics firm Xeneta is forecasting air cargo demand will grow four per cent to six per cent next year, depending on the trade lane, while capacity increases in the four per cent to five per cent range.
Volatile geopolitical factors and widespread tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump could create headwinds for air cargo in 2025. In the short term, businesses are expected to rush imports before Trump takes office and can implement tariffs early next year.
SeaNews Turkey