THE air cargo industry should expect a non-existent, or at best muted, peak season as rates and volumes continue to slide.
September saw rates drop 19 per cent year on year out of Hong Kong to North America, while out of Shanghai they fell 42 per cent, according to the TAC Index, reports London's Loadstar..
On Asia to Europe, rates fell 25 per cent from Shanghai and were flat from Hong Kong, but all lanes are still significantly - between 92 per cent and 175 per cent - above pre-Covid levels.
World ACD, meanwhile, reported lower volumes, with chargeable weight down 12 per cent year on year in weeks 38 and 39, with volumes ex-Asia Pacific 20 per cent below and North America-origin tonnages 12 per cent down.
It said: 'Volumes show signs of a continued weakening trend, with no clear signs yet of a fourth-quarter peak season.'
And Stifel director Bruce Chan, director global logistics, told the Baltic Exchange: 'Ultimately, we expect these trends to continue. Given more inventory in the system, more fluidity in the supply chain, less residual boost from fiscal and stimulus policy and uncertainty over the direction of the global economy, we do not believe there will be much of a peak.'
But he added: 'That said, we believe pricing is likely to remain structurally higher than pre-pandemic levels for some time.' And he cited geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, as well as residual volatility and imbalanced supply chains as factors.
Meanwhile, IATA chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said GDP was 'not great, but not awful', and added: 'The world economy tends to be quite resilient, but there is a steady decline in the growth rate of the global economy. Emerging markets are going to bear the brunt of what is thrown at us.'
She added: 'Air cargo rates remain competitive with container rates. That is still supporting air cargo, but will wane in 2023. Air cargo exaggerates movements in world trade - the container trade more closely aligns with it.'
Ms Thomsen also pointed to China, which has contributed about 30 per cent of GDP growth in the past two decades, as the biggest risk to both the global economy and air cargo.
SeaNews Turkey
September saw rates drop 19 per cent year on year out of Hong Kong to North America, while out of Shanghai they fell 42 per cent, according to the TAC Index, reports London's Loadstar..
On Asia to Europe, rates fell 25 per cent from Shanghai and were flat from Hong Kong, but all lanes are still significantly - between 92 per cent and 175 per cent - above pre-Covid levels.
World ACD, meanwhile, reported lower volumes, with chargeable weight down 12 per cent year on year in weeks 38 and 39, with volumes ex-Asia Pacific 20 per cent below and North America-origin tonnages 12 per cent down.
It said: 'Volumes show signs of a continued weakening trend, with no clear signs yet of a fourth-quarter peak season.'
And Stifel director Bruce Chan, director global logistics, told the Baltic Exchange: 'Ultimately, we expect these trends to continue. Given more inventory in the system, more fluidity in the supply chain, less residual boost from fiscal and stimulus policy and uncertainty over the direction of the global economy, we do not believe there will be much of a peak.'
But he added: 'That said, we believe pricing is likely to remain structurally higher than pre-pandemic levels for some time.' And he cited geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, as well as residual volatility and imbalanced supply chains as factors.
Meanwhile, IATA chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen said GDP was 'not great, but not awful', and added: 'The world economy tends to be quite resilient, but there is a steady decline in the growth rate of the global economy. Emerging markets are going to bear the brunt of what is thrown at us.'
She added: 'Air cargo rates remain competitive with container rates. That is still supporting air cargo, but will wane in 2023. Air cargo exaggerates movements in world trade - the container trade more closely aligns with it.'
Ms Thomsen also pointed to China, which has contributed about 30 per cent of GDP growth in the past two decades, as the biggest risk to both the global economy and air cargo.
SeaNews Turkey
