IN its new analysis of global shipping, BIMCO is forecasting a slowing growth rate for the world's fleet in the next five years compared to the last five years, despite the recent flurry of construction orders coming primarily in the containership and gas carrier segments.
The shipping trade association points to the fact that despite new orders for containerships currently at a 14-year-high, global shipyards are under pressure. Based on the current pace of the market, BIMCO says that 2021 is heading towards being the third-lowest level of newbuilding orders in 12 years, reports Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.
The trading world merchant fleet had a capacity of 74,505 ships across 11 main segments, according to BIMCO. In their baseline scenario, the total fleet is projected to reach 79,282 by the end of 2025. That would represent 6.4 per cent growth over the five years, down from 7.4 per cent in the previous five years.
From 2021 onwards, BIMCO projects the fleet to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.25 per cent in a baseline scenario until the start of 2026. The CAGR for the previous five years is 1.44 per cent. In addition to the baseline, a low and a high scenario is provided to consider the impact from various degrees of uncertainty for the future number of ships in the market.
The most substantial growth rate by any of the considered 11 segments during 2020 through 2025 according to BIMCO will likely be the LNG tankers. According to BIMCO, the LNG tanker fleet currently consists of 593 ships, and 85 per cent of the fleet has a cargo carrying capacity in the range of 100,000-200,000 cubic metres. In BIMCO's baseline scenario the LNG tanker fleet would reach 819 vessels at the end of 2025. The range is between 799 ships in a low growth scenario to 839 ships in a high growth scenario.
Containerships are currently the fastest growing segment. So far this year, BIMCO reports 229 ships totaling 2.2 million TEU have been added to the order book. This compares with deliveries of 393,566 TEU, leaving a combined orderbook of 4.35 million TEU, more than twice the size it was eight months ago when containership orders bottomed out at 1.95 million TEU. Surging profits and high demand have driven the strong demand for new containership orders.
SeaNews Turkey
The shipping trade association points to the fact that despite new orders for containerships currently at a 14-year-high, global shipyards are under pressure. Based on the current pace of the market, BIMCO says that 2021 is heading towards being the third-lowest level of newbuilding orders in 12 years, reports Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.
The trading world merchant fleet had a capacity of 74,505 ships across 11 main segments, according to BIMCO. In their baseline scenario, the total fleet is projected to reach 79,282 by the end of 2025. That would represent 6.4 per cent growth over the five years, down from 7.4 per cent in the previous five years.
From 2021 onwards, BIMCO projects the fleet to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.25 per cent in a baseline scenario until the start of 2026. The CAGR for the previous five years is 1.44 per cent. In addition to the baseline, a low and a high scenario is provided to consider the impact from various degrees of uncertainty for the future number of ships in the market.
The most substantial growth rate by any of the considered 11 segments during 2020 through 2025 according to BIMCO will likely be the LNG tankers. According to BIMCO, the LNG tanker fleet currently consists of 593 ships, and 85 per cent of the fleet has a cargo carrying capacity in the range of 100,000-200,000 cubic metres. In BIMCO's baseline scenario the LNG tanker fleet would reach 819 vessels at the end of 2025. The range is between 799 ships in a low growth scenario to 839 ships in a high growth scenario.
Containerships are currently the fastest growing segment. So far this year, BIMCO reports 229 ships totaling 2.2 million TEU have been added to the order book. This compares with deliveries of 393,566 TEU, leaving a combined orderbook of 4.35 million TEU, more than twice the size it was eight months ago when containership orders bottomed out at 1.95 million TEU. Surging profits and high demand have driven the strong demand for new containership orders.
SeaNews Turkey