World air cargo volume falls in September, but decline flattens
THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 4
THE International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 4.5 per cent year-on-year decline in September worldwide air cargo traffic measured in freight tonne kilometres (Fakes)
But IATA also noted in its September Air Freight Market Analysis that most of the decline in air freight volumes occurred in late 2018 and early 2019 with the downward trend having plateaued since that time.
Should this current trend continue, year-on-year growth rate is expected to return to positive territory in the early part of 2020.
Returning to September 2019, industry wide air freight capacity measured in available freight tonne kilometres (AFTKs), rose 2.1 per cent year on year for the month and 1.9 per cent for the first nine months of 2019. Capacity growth has now surpassed growth in demand for the 17th consecutive month, according to IATA.
Softer demand has dragged load factors as well, which are down 3.2 percentage points year on year for September 2019, and 2.6 percentage points for the first nine months of 2019, compared to the same period the year prior.
IATA cites ongoing weakness in several key economies including Germany and the UK as well as the ongoing political uncertainty stemming from Brexit's delay, the most recent escalation in the US-China trade dispute and stricter trade controls between South Korea and Japan, as impacting global volumes.
The new export orders component of the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was also negative this month, despite a slight improvement from August.