Shipping sector shows mixed performance in first half: Clarksons
OVERALL the ClarkSea Index rose eight per cent year on year in the first half, and Clarksons Research's mid-year report for the shipping sector presents a mixed picture
OVERALL the ClarkSea Index rose eight per cent year on year in the first half, and Clarksons Research's mid-year report for the shipping sector presents a mixed picture.
Across the containership market, rates are just above trend, with 'some encouraging gains in larger vessel sizes (9,000 TEU: US$36,000 per day),' the researchers, reported Hellenic Shipping News.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has moved upwards (six per cent below trend versus 65 per cent below 2018) and finished the first half strongly at $70,000/day, with some 'encouraging trends' in US and Australian exports.
Fleet supply growth of 1.9 per cent in the first six months of the year is below trend and seems 'manageable' despite a nine per cent year on year uptick in shipbuilding output to 51 million deadweight tonnage and recycling falling 45 per cent to 10.8 million dwt.
The orderbook sits at 10 per cent of the fleet and 'our fleet growth projection for full year 2020 of 1.9 per cent in dwt would be the lowest rate of growth for over 20 years,' the analysts said. Newbuild ordering declined 54 per cent year on year to 25 million dwt.
The bulker market has had a 'tough' first half after some demand 'shocks', falling 22 per cent compared to the same period in 2018.
The tanker market is in a 'much better position than a year ago' with earnings up 80 per cent year on year in the first half, 'but seasonality, a relatively short winter spike, heavy newbuild deliveries and refinery maintenance mean first half earnings are slightly below the 10-year trend,' the researchers said.
'Our estimate for 2019 trade growth now sits at 2.2 per cent (tonne-mile: 2.5 per cent), downgraded from our initial projection of 3.2 per cent. There is a range of issues involved, from the 'trade war', to the Vale dam collapse, Australian cyclones, OPEC cuts and the Chinese economy.
'In isolation many of these issues seem manageable but collectively they impact, particularly broader institutional investor sentiment. While our base case projections suggest trade will be 'OK' for shipping (long-haul US energy exports help), let's watch for downgrades and hope for progress in US-China trade negotiations,' Clarksons said.