THE suspension of US port strikes until next year has helped relieve some of air cargo's peak season capacity concerns but questions remain regarding just how busy the next few months will be.
TAC Index editor Neil Wilson said that there was a mixed outlook for how tight capacity would be during the peak season even before the strike was temporarily suspended until next year.
He told Air Cargo News that companies had been busy blocking out space on aircraft, which could mean there isn't a spike in demand as companies have already planned the space they need, or that any spike would have a more pronounced effect on rates as there isn't enough spare capacity to cater for spot market demand.
'With or without the strike there already was a lot of debate about how big the peak will be - given the amount of capacity already locked up in Block Space Agreements (BSAs) for months ahead,' he said.
'Some think the tight capacity might push spot prices very high, but others think a lot of that marginal demand is already priced in.'
Writing in a monthly column on the TAC website, he also explained that the market had been 'flattish' in recent weeks, which was deflating expectations of an earlier and/or more pronounced peak season after a stronger-than-expected summer.
On the other hand, 'there were also a number of other factors pointing towards higher rates, including some big orders for items like solar panels and mobile phones known to be coming through'.
Mr Wilson said that overall airfreight rates were little changed last month, with the global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) edging up 1.8 per cent over the four weeks to September 30, leaving it ahead of the same month last year by 7.5 per cent.
Freightos head of research Judah Levine said that there may be some continued pressure on air cargo rates as importers continue to expedite some essential inventories until ocean operations stabilize.
SeaNews Turkey
TAC Index editor Neil Wilson said that there was a mixed outlook for how tight capacity would be during the peak season even before the strike was temporarily suspended until next year.
He told Air Cargo News that companies had been busy blocking out space on aircraft, which could mean there isn't a spike in demand as companies have already planned the space they need, or that any spike would have a more pronounced effect on rates as there isn't enough spare capacity to cater for spot market demand.
'With or without the strike there already was a lot of debate about how big the peak will be - given the amount of capacity already locked up in Block Space Agreements (BSAs) for months ahead,' he said.
'Some think the tight capacity might push spot prices very high, but others think a lot of that marginal demand is already priced in.'
Writing in a monthly column on the TAC website, he also explained that the market had been 'flattish' in recent weeks, which was deflating expectations of an earlier and/or more pronounced peak season after a stronger-than-expected summer.
On the other hand, 'there were also a number of other factors pointing towards higher rates, including some big orders for items like solar panels and mobile phones known to be coming through'.
Mr Wilson said that overall airfreight rates were little changed last month, with the global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) edging up 1.8 per cent over the four weeks to September 30, leaving it ahead of the same month last year by 7.5 per cent.
Freightos head of research Judah Levine said that there may be some continued pressure on air cargo rates as importers continue to expedite some essential inventories until ocean operations stabilize.
SeaNews Turkey
