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Peak season fails to stop global air cargo falling 1.4pc in November

AIR cargo traffic dropped in November by 1

06 January 2019 - 19:00

AIR cargo traffic dropped in November by 1.4 per cent year on year and by two per cent compared with October, according to the latest figures from analyst WorldACD despite the industry entering its peak season.

'Only the origins Africa (+4.9 per cent) and Asia Pacific (+0.5 per cent) did better in November than in October,' the analyst stated in its monthly market round-up, reported London's Air Cargo News.



'The destinations Africa (+2.8 per cent) and Europe (+0.3 per cent) also registered a month on month (MoM) increase.



'Asia Pacific to Europe showed a sizeable increase of 7.2 per cent month on month. The Middle East and South Asia, together with North America, had the dubious honour of showing a MoM decrease to each of the other five regions.



'As if this were not enough deviation from the worldwide trends in November, take a look at the traffic between China and Hong Kong and the US, presently attracting a lot of interest.



'Last month we interpreted the very positive YoY October figures for the market China-USA as a sign of US businesses ?stocking up' before tariffs would begin to bite. Could that still be the case?



'Although November showed a small increase in this market over October (up one per cent), the YoY figures showed a drop of five per cent. Combine this with a considerable drop in the opposite direction US to China (minus six per cent MoM and minus eight per cent YoY).



'November was the first month since the trade war started that the YoY volume change for both directions was negative.



'It goes for both China and the USA that their performance to the rest of the world is much better than their performance to the territory of their trade war adversary.'



The analyst said that of the world's air cargo engines, China registered a 4.1 per cent month-on-month increase and Hong Kong noted an 8.8 per cent improvement.



In spite of the slowdown in air cargo traffic, yields continued to increase - in US dollar terms there was a 3.5 per cent improvement compared with 2017 and a four per cent improvement on October 2018's levels.



However, the analyst said that the improvements in yields have narrowed every month since July.



Looking ahead, WorldACD said: 'The mixed picture we have seen in 2018 may well carry over into the new year, which seems to announce itself with much more uncertainty than a year ago when the air cargo world looked quite stable.'


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