SHIPPING markets are experiencing an extended period of positive conditions, with our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaging US$24,000 a day in the first quarter, up 35 per cent on the 10-year trend, reports Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.
Aside from underlying trade volume growth and a tight shipbuilding market, complexities in supply and demand continue to impact including from geopolitical disruption to trade patterns and increasing emissions regulations.
Despite mixed global economic signals, seaborne trade volumes grew three per cent to 12.4 billion tonnes in 2023, said Clarksons Shipping Review & Outlook.
Chinese trade was particularly supportive and 'we project further growth of two per cent to 12.6bt in 2024. Alongside underlying trends towards longer-haul voyages in some sectors (eg Atlantic oil and iron ore exports), impacts from disruption events are also amplifying the 'distance kicker' to overall shipping demand.
Traffic through the Red Sea (10 per cent of global trade) has seen sharp declines (transits down 70 per cent), as vessels re-route (via Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage distances) and trade flows adapt.
'We estimate the diversions are today generating additional global vessel demand of three per cent (equivalent to an entire year of typical trade growth), increasing to 11 per cent for the container sector alone,' said the report.
Restrictions on transits through the Panama Canal (2.5 per cent of global trade) due to low water levels have also impacted, with tonnage transits down 33 per cent.
And the tonne-mile impacts of redistributed Russian oil and gas exports and European imports also continue.
'In our base case factoring Red Sea disruption across the first half of the year, global tonne-mile trade grows by 3.9 per cent this year (2023: 4.6 per cent ), continuing a trend of outpacing expansion in tonnes.
'Shipping markets are today positive with strong cashflow. Geopolitics and global economic risks need closely monitoring, while some supply-side constraints and potential impacts from emission policies are supportive, as the industry navigates managing disruption and going green,' said Clarksons.
SeaNews Turkey
Aside from underlying trade volume growth and a tight shipbuilding market, complexities in supply and demand continue to impact including from geopolitical disruption to trade patterns and increasing emissions regulations.
Despite mixed global economic signals, seaborne trade volumes grew three per cent to 12.4 billion tonnes in 2023, said Clarksons Shipping Review & Outlook.
Chinese trade was particularly supportive and 'we project further growth of two per cent to 12.6bt in 2024. Alongside underlying trends towards longer-haul voyages in some sectors (eg Atlantic oil and iron ore exports), impacts from disruption events are also amplifying the 'distance kicker' to overall shipping demand.
Traffic through the Red Sea (10 per cent of global trade) has seen sharp declines (transits down 70 per cent), as vessels re-route (via Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage distances) and trade flows adapt.
'We estimate the diversions are today generating additional global vessel demand of three per cent (equivalent to an entire year of typical trade growth), increasing to 11 per cent for the container sector alone,' said the report.
Restrictions on transits through the Panama Canal (2.5 per cent of global trade) due to low water levels have also impacted, with tonnage transits down 33 per cent.
And the tonne-mile impacts of redistributed Russian oil and gas exports and European imports also continue.
'In our base case factoring Red Sea disruption across the first half of the year, global tonne-mile trade grows by 3.9 per cent this year (2023: 4.6 per cent ), continuing a trend of outpacing expansion in tonnes.
'Shipping markets are today positive with strong cashflow. Geopolitics and global economic risks need closely monitoring, while some supply-side constraints and potential impacts from emission policies are supportive, as the industry navigates managing disruption and going green,' said Clarksons.
SeaNews Turkey