UNITED NATIONS environmental regulations to be imposed on the shipping industry by its agency the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) from January will have little capacity-absorbing impact on the heavily oversupplied carriers, says London's Drewry Maritime Research.
'We don't see any significant impact next year on effective capacity from the IMO's EEXI and CII regulations,' said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry.
He said imo regulations, known as IMO 2023, will remove up to 15 per cent of capacity through slow steaming and scrapping.
The Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulations will be in force from January. EEXI is based on the efficiency of the design of in-service vessels, while CII is an operational measure looking at how efficiently a ship transports cargo.
According to Maersk, five to 15 per cent of additional capacity will be required as a result of the EEXI rules, while Hapag-Lloyd puts it at five to 10 per cent.Disagreeing, Mr Heany said: 'That misses the point that EEXI is calculated on the design speed of a vessel rather than its actual operational speed. Because slow steaming, virtually all ships will be able to continue running at the same speeds as they are already.'
Agreeing, Xeneta top analyst Peter Sand said: 'In essence some smaller ships may slow down, but it might very well also be the case that they are already in compliance maybe needing just a bit of adjustment.'
Said Alphaliner's Jan Tiedemann: 'Ships are already not sailing at their top speeds, so even if you mandate lower speeds, the effect on capacity of the IMO regulations could be zero.'
But Vespucci Maritime's Lars Jensen believes the new fuel efficiency rules, combined with slow-steaming and scrapping, will reduce effective ocean carrier capacity by up 15 per cent between 2023 and 2024.
'So what seems to be massive capacity growth coming in 2023 and 2024 is going to be severely tempered both by scrapping and by new environmental regulations,' Mr Jensen told the recent South Carolina International Trade Conference.
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'We don't see any significant impact next year on effective capacity from the IMO's EEXI and CII regulations,' said Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry.
He said imo regulations, known as IMO 2023, will remove up to 15 per cent of capacity through slow steaming and scrapping.
The Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulations will be in force from January. EEXI is based on the efficiency of the design of in-service vessels, while CII is an operational measure looking at how efficiently a ship transports cargo.
According to Maersk, five to 15 per cent of additional capacity will be required as a result of the EEXI rules, while Hapag-Lloyd puts it at five to 10 per cent.Disagreeing, Mr Heany said: 'That misses the point that EEXI is calculated on the design speed of a vessel rather than its actual operational speed. Because slow steaming, virtually all ships will be able to continue running at the same speeds as they are already.'
Agreeing, Xeneta top analyst Peter Sand said: 'In essence some smaller ships may slow down, but it might very well also be the case that they are already in compliance maybe needing just a bit of adjustment.'
Said Alphaliner's Jan Tiedemann: 'Ships are already not sailing at their top speeds, so even if you mandate lower speeds, the effect on capacity of the IMO regulations could be zero.'
But Vespucci Maritime's Lars Jensen believes the new fuel efficiency rules, combined with slow-steaming and scrapping, will reduce effective ocean carrier capacity by up 15 per cent between 2023 and 2024.
'So what seems to be massive capacity growth coming in 2023 and 2024 is going to be severely tempered both by scrapping and by new environmental regulations,' Mr Jensen told the recent South Carolina International Trade Conference.
SeaNews Turkey
