Carriers must brace for 17 million TEU drop in this year: Lars Jensen
OCEAN carrier should brace themselves for the loss of 17 million TEU in container throughput this year as the result of the coronavirus pandemic, reports Singapore's Splash 247
18 March 2020 - 19:00
Lars Jensen, of Copenhagen's SeaIntelligence Consulting made his forecast based on the industry suffering a 10 per cent drop in business from a normal throughput of 80 million TEU, as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis from 2008.
Andy Lane from CTI Consultancy backed the potential 10 per cent shortfall, but reckoned the 80 million TEU figure for ports was around 10 million too high. Also citing the 2008 financial crisis, Mr Lane suggested the bounce back next year could be phenomenal.
'What we saw after 2008 was a huge spike in growth in 2010 to well beyond 2007 levels, and the effects of this current issue will ease faster,' Mr Lane predicted, adding: 'So it will be a tough year in 2020 for all, but maybe a nice 2021 ahead.'
Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at ship owning organisation BIMCO, was more circumspect about the headline grabbing 10 per cent figure.
'I don't think that we will see a drop of 10 per cent,' Mr Sand told Splash. 'Fingers crossed, the coronavirus will eventually stop, that point in time is likely to be faster than the financial crisis stopped terrorising the global economy. A cautious estimate could be anywhere between -1 to -5 per cent.'
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