US container imports are expected to drop in early 2026 due to tariff uncertainties and potential impacts from the Iran conflict, says NRF.
Imports at major US container ports are expected to remain below last year's levels in the first half of 2026 amid tariff uncertainty. However, it is too soon to assess the impact of the conflict in Iran, reported the National Retail Federation.
NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold stated that the Supreme Court's ruling against IEEPA tariffs had been followed by new measures, including a temporary 10 percent tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He warned that tariffs raise costs for businesses and consumers and urged a more strategic approach.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that the immediate impact of the Iran conflict on US-bound container traffic was limited, as little cargo originates from the region. However, he cautioned that rising oil and gasoline prices could fuel inflation, squeeze consumer spending, and reduce imports if the conflict persists.
US ports handled 2.08 million TEU in January, which is up 3.8 percent from December but down 6.4 percent year on year. Global Port Tracker projected February at 2.01 million TEU, March at 1.91 million TEU, April at 2.03 million TEU, May at 2.09 million TEU, and June at 2.1 million TEU.
These figures would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5 percent from 12.53 million TEU in the same period of 2025. Imports in 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3 percent from 2024.
