The anticipated pre-Chinese New Year cargo surge is hindered by tariffs, weak demand, and low consumer sentiment, impacting transpacific trade.
The traditional pre-Chinese New Year cargo rush has failed to materialize in 2026 as tariffs, weak demand, and poor consumer sentiment weigh on transpacific trade, reported New York's Journal of Commerce. Carriers are blanking more sailings, and spot rates have fallen sharply.
Sources indicate that muted demand reflects uncertainty among retailers regarding tariffs and the earlier frontloading of spring merchandise. Factories in China will close for at least a week from February 17, but the usual surge ahead of the holiday has not occurred.
Spot rates from North Asia to the US West Coast fell from $2,075 per FEU at the start of January to $1,900 by month-end, according to Platts. Drewry reported that Shanghai-Los Angeles rates dropped from $3,132 to $2,442, while Shanghai-West Coast rates fell to $1,867 from $2,188.
Current spot rates are about 50 percent lower than a year ago, with carriers offering bullet rates as low as $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 to the East Coast. Forwarders stated that these discounts are driving cargo movements.
Analysts noted that supply growth continues to outpace demand growth. Retailers are expected to have leverage in annual contract talks beginning in March.
Blank sailings are accelerating. Data from eeSea shows that carriers plan to withdraw 206,835 TEU of capacity on Asia-West Coast routes in February, up from 107,318 TEU in January. East and Gulf Coast blanks are at 96,881 TEU, compared with 77,339 TEU last month.
US retailers forecast weaker imports over the next three months. Global Port Tracker projects February volumes down 4.6 percent year on year, March down 12.6 percent, and April down 8.1 percent.
Consumer sentiment is also deteriorating. The Conference Board reported that its confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest since May 2014, as concerns deepened over current conditions and future expectations.
