US automobile and auto parts demand faces further strain if the Middle East war extends into summer, reports New York's Journal of Commerce. Rising fuel prices and tariffs are already weighing on sales and container volumes.

S&P Global forecasts vehicle sales to fall two percent in 2026 due to higher borrowing costs and steel tariffs. The cheapest new 2026 model car is priced at US$20,550, and analysts warn that prolonged conflict will push prices higher, reducing consumer demand and container volumes.

Containerized US imports of autos and parts fell 9.4 percent in 2025, while exports rose 15.3 percent, according to PIERS data. Most seaborne vehicle trade moves via ro/ro ships, which are not captured in container statistics.

Chris Hopson of S&P Global stated that the industry absorbed tariffs in 2025, but the Iran war raises questions about how long higher costs can be sustained. Advance Auto Parts CEO Shane O'Kelly noted that aftermarket demand remains resilient as consumers keep older cars running.

Importers are shifting sourcing from China to Southeast Asia and India, though transitions take up to two years. China's share of US auto parts imports fell to 35.2 percent in 2025, while South Korea and Japan rose to a combined 27 percent.

Port of Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba reported flat passenger vehicle imports in 2025, with exports up 6.2 percent. Containerized auto parts imports rose 1.1 percent, while exports fell 15 percent. Baltimore handled more than 700,000 vehicles for the 13th straight year, though tariff inconsistencies complicate sourcing decisions.

Jonathan Daniels of the Maryland Port Administration said that unpredictable tariff levels make it difficult to decide whether to import fully assembled cars or components. Despite challenges, exports of damaged cars to West Africa remain a bright spot.

PIERS data shows the UAE and Georgia as the largest containerized export markets for US autos and parts, accounting for 12 percent and 11.8 percent respectively.