Tamer Kıran shares a cautiously optimistic outlook for Turkey's economy in 2026, considering geopolitical risks and monetary policy impacts.
During the December Assembly Meeting of the İMEAK Chamber of Shipping, Chairman Tamer Kıran presented a comprehensive analysis of the Turkish economy. He addressed the delayed effects of tight monetary policy, credit conditions, budget balances, and geopolitical risks, emphasizing a stance of 'cautious optimism' for 2026.
The meeting, chaired by Assembly President Başaran Bayrak, focused on the current economic outlook and future projections. Kıran highlighted that the tight monetary policy implemented since mid-2023 has had a delayed impact on economic activity, with effects expected to manifest over the next 6 to 9 months. He noted that the growth rate is anticipated to decline to the 2-3% range in 2024, indicating that this 'bitter prescription' has dampened short-term growth.
Kıran pointed out that signals of interest rate cuts in the last quarter of the previous year, along with subsequent measures, are expected to help growth regain momentum in 2025, with an average growth rate of around 3.5% for the first nine months of the year. He mentioned a growth band of 3-4% for 2025, with more positive expectations for 2026.
He also noted that the imbalance between supply and demand has limited the reduction in credit costs, suggesting a gradual easing of credit limits, particularly in the second half of 2026. Kıran stated that if this easing occurs, growth could accelerate, emphasizing the need for the economy to transition from a braking to an accelerating phase while maintaining stability.
Regarding inflation, Kıran highlighted that levels around 20% are expected for 2026, while budget balances show limited improvement. He pointed out that the budget deficit continues to exceed 3%, despite a partial decline in the primary deficit, influenced by reduced earthquake-related expenditures and increased measures to combat the informal economy.
Kıran acknowledged the extraordinary intensity of geopolitical and political developments in both global and local contexts in 2025. He noted that while these risks are unlikely to disappear in 2026, limited risks could lead to an improved economic outlook. A lasting ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict and peace in the Russia-Ukraine war could positively impact the Turkish economy in 2026.
In conclusion, Kıran expressed that adopting a perspective of cautious optimism for 2026, following the global uncertainties of 2025, is appropriate. While there is optimism, it is measured, as the economy speaks not with expectations but with realizations.
Source: www.denizhaber.com
