Air freight volumes rose 6% in September, but shippers seek flexible rate mechanisms to navigate market volatility, says Xeneta.
Global air freight volumes delivered another month of steady growth in September, up +6% year-on-year. However, shippers remain cautious about long-term capacity commitments and are looking for 'floating mechanisms' to manage changing market conditions and their impact on rates, according to industry analysts at Xeneta.
September's demand increase continued the upward trend seen in August and July, when volumes rose +6% and +5%, respectively, slowing anticipated rate reductions. Global air cargo spot rates (valid for up to one month) averaged USD 3.10 per kg in September, up +27% from the same month last year. Rates edged up +2% month-on-month, consistent with the usual seasonal firming at the end of the third quarter, as jet fuel prices climbed due to continuing tensions in the Middle East, roughly doubling their pre-conflict level. Brent crude rose above USD 100 per barrel in early September.
Year-on-year volume growth in September continued to outpace the increase in capacity, which rose +2% versus a year ago after flatlining in July and August. This contributed to a two-percentage-point increase in Xeneta's dynamic load factor to 62%—its measurement of capacity utilization based on the volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.
The most striking shift in Xeneta's data is how shippers are buying freight capacity. Analysis of new contracts valid starting from Q3 2026 shows that 60% were for three months or less, compared with 25% in Q3 2025 and 47% in Q2 2026. Three-month agreements alone accounted for 42% of new contracts, up from 16% a year earlier, while the share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25%. Contracts of more than 12 months have all but disappeared, now at 3%.
Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, states that shippers are increasingly looking for 'floating mechanisms' with a base rate that adjusts depending on market conditions.
"There is a high degree of realism in the way shippers are approaching the market. There remains a lot of instability, making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having terms and conditions in place to deal with these volatile conditions," he said.
"A one-year fixed-rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions. Shippers are looking to build mechanisms that add flexibility to their commercial relationships with forwarders, which will help ensure they hold across the year," he added.
Van de Wouw continued: "A one-year deal without any adjustment mechanism is becoming more the exception than the rule. If they do exist, not many will survive the upcoming 12 months."
China's low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell again in August, down -40% year-on-year, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of the latest China Customs data. This was a steeper decline than July's -25% as the EU's EUR 3-per-item customs duty, introduced on 1 July, continues to bite. E-commerce exports to the US, by contrast, were +17% higher year-on-year in August, continuing their recovery from the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025, albeit from a lowered base.
The divergence is showing up in freight rates. The gap between China-US and China-Europe air spot rates has widened since the EU duty took effect. Even so, China to Western Europe spot rates rebounded +10% month-on-month in September to USD 4.26 per kg, reversing the -6% decline in August and the -22% fall in July, as outbound China demand picked up in the weeks leading into Golden Week.
As anticipated, most major corridors saw spot rates rise month-on-month in September after the summer decline. Northeast Asia to Europe rose +5% to USD 4.74 per kg, Northeast Asia to North America was also up +5% to USD 6.03 per kg, while Southeast Asia to Europe rose +3%.
Transatlantic rates firmed in both directions, with Europe to North America up +2% and North America to Europe up +4% in September compared to August. The only corridors to soften were North America to Southeast Asia (-1%) and Europe to Southeast Asia (-2%).
Compared with late February, before the escalation of the Iran war, spot rates into the Middle East remain the most elevated: +91% from South Asia and +80% from Europe in week 39 (21-27 September).
Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America stood +34% and +29% above late-February levels, respectively, supported by e-commerce demand recovery and AI-related shipments. Europe to North America remained the exception at -20% below late-February levels, though that gap has narrowed from -25% in August as summer belly capacity gradually comes out of the market.
While acknowledging a global air freight market on track for around +4% year-on-year demand growth in 2026, which will surpass many industry observers' expectations at the start of the year, Niall van de Wouw expects shippers to hold out for what they see as a fairer way to manage market changes. This, he says, is also reflected in more shippers aligning with Xeneta to increase their visibility of air freight pricing.
"The high percentage of short-term, 3-month deals we are recording is one of the current mechanisms shippers are using while they take time to negotiate what they see as a fairer way to buy capacity. Our position is that this should be based on the all-in rates airlines are charging freight forwarders, which we see as a better floating mechanism than a blunt fuel surcharge," he said.
In the meantime, van de Wouw expects 'more of the same' for global air cargo to the end of the year.
"October is underway, and we are not picking up signals of a strong peak season from our shipper and forwarder community. What will happen in Q4 is too early to call, but the indicators currently point towards a muted final quarter of the year, as outlined in Xeneta's mid-year outlook," van de Wouw added.
One wildcard, he said, is on the water. Ocean schedule reliability has never recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and renewed Red Sea disruption, compounded by port congestion delaying container releases, has pushed Asia to US West Coast ocean rates back towards pandemic-era highs.
"When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air. We are not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn't change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely," van de Wouw said.
Shifting trade policy, such as the recent partial easing of China-US tariffs, adds another layer of uncertainty, though the market has so far absorbed these changes without a visible break in trend.
