The shadow fleet's rapid growth threatens maritime safety, with thousands of vessels operating outside oversight, warns Mumbai's Maritime Gateway.
The rapid expansion of the shadow fleet is creating a dangerous blind spot in global shipping, with thousands of vessels operating outside conventional oversight and eroding maritime safety data, reports Mumbai's Maritime Gateway.
Industry concern is mounting as more tankers and gas carriers are blacklisted under sanctions. Okeanis Eco Tankers CEO Aristidis Alafouzos warned that rerouting and congestion are stretching capacity, making further growth of the shadow fleet inevitable. Experts estimate that more than 3,000 vessels may already be operating without insurance or nearing the end of life, described as 'ticking time bombs' unlikely to return to mainstream trades.
Disabling or manipulating AIS signals is eroding the collective maritime record, creating what analysts call 'dark data'. This loss of visibility distorts freight indices and weakens risk modeling, undermining the transparency that global trade depends on. Windward's 2026 forecast warns that each vessel disappearing from digital view increases both danger and cost.
AIS signals are increasingly being switched off, spoofed, or falsified, often to conceal illicit activity. Maritime experts argue that visual intelligence, combining sensors such as radar and thermal imaging with AI-based detection, is now essential to verify vessel presence when digital signals fail. This provides a reliable baseline for safe navigation.
Recycling practices add to the risk, with sanctioned ships reportedly scrapped outside formal channels or abandoned offshore. Without legitimate decommissioning, many vessels will operate until they fail. Analysts caution that unseen operations break the safety data loop, preventing lessons from being learned and compounding risk over time.
Restoring visibility is seen as critical not only for immediate safety but for preserving industry knowledge. Evidence-based systems, visual verification beyond AIS, and active data sharing are urged as core principles of seamanship. Experts stress that opacity weakens judgment, while transparency enables safer and more defensible decisions.
