Iran's Revolutionary Guards threaten the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a major crisis in global trade and energy markets.
The Legal Status of the Strait of Hormuz: Can Iran Close the Strait?
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli attacks has led to a historic crisis in global trade and energy markets. Following warnings of severe intervention against vessels violating the ban, traffic in the strait has nearly come to a halt, with only seven ships reported to have passed through in the last two days. Evaluating the developments on Habertürk screens, Captain and Lawyer Cahit İstikbal, President of the Maritime Safety Association, pointed out the economic, legal, and humanitarian dimensions of the crisis, stating that world maritime history is experiencing its greatest rupture since World War II.
3% of Global Trade Stuck in the Strait
The economic toll of the crisis is worsening day by day. According to data shared by Captain Cahit İstikbal, there are currently 1,900 commercial vessels anchored off the coast of the Strait of Hormuz and its surroundings. This number corresponds to about 3 to 4% of the global trade fleet of approximately 80,000 vessels operating internationally. Among the waiting ships are bulk carriers and chemical product carriers, with a significant portion being oil tankers. İstikbal emphasized that the 190 million barrels of oil stranded on these ships is equivalent to half the amount of oil transported by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in a year, indicating that this situation has caused a significant rupture in the global energy supply chain and serious spikes in freight and oil prices.
Humanitarian Crisis Looming for 20,000 Seafarers
The humanitarian dimension of the issue has reached alarming levels, as concerning as its economic aspect. According to data from the International Maritime Organization, there are approximately 20,000 seafarers on the stranded vessels. Based on information from local agents, İstikbal reported that the crew's food and beverage needs are currently being attempted to be met by tugboats from Oman at double the normal price. However, it has been warned that the fuel and water supplies on the ships may last at most another month, and with the depletion of fuel, generators will stop, leading to a catastrophic scenario where even basic humanitarian needs for the seafarers cannot be met.
Legal Deadlock and the Position of Global Powers
The legal basis of the crisis continues to be a topic of discussion on the international stage. İstikbal stated that Iran has declared the region as its territorial waters by utilizing its status as a 'persistent opposing state,' which has objected to the transit passage regime of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea from the beginning, and that it has a legal argument in this regard. He noted that Europe is suffering the most significant damage from the crisis, while the U.S. is not affected due to its own energy resources, and Russia and China are benefiting from the current situation. According to İstikbal, Europe is paying the price today in Hormuz for its unconditional support of U.S. policies in the Ukraine war. Additionally, it was emphasized that the United Nations system and international law have become dysfunctional in this crisis, just as they have in Gaza, with states inventing laws according to their own interests.
Turkey's Peace Diplomacy and the Future of the Crisis
Turkey is conducting proactive diplomacy to extinguish the fire in the region. According to breaking news shared during the broadcast, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has initiated peace diplomacy by holding a phone conversation with his Iranian, Pakistani, and Egyptian counterparts. Sharing his forecasts regarding the future of the crisis, Captain İstikbal stated that due to the severe economic damage incurred by the U.S. and Europe, the current stalemate is unlikely to last long, and they hope for a peaceful resolution in the coming days. Otherwise, it was warned that a military intervention could lead to much larger environmental and humanitarian disasters in the region.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
