European port tracker sees steady, but less robust box volume growth in 2011

GLOBAL Port Tracker expects a steady, but a less robust container volume growth through six northern European ports in the second half of 2011 after a disappointing first quarter.

Moderate growth in container volumes across Europe was experienced in the beginning of the year continued in March, according to Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, which also reported a weakening growth for six ports surveyed while still maintaining it expects month-to-month volume increases over the next year.

Ports surveyed were Le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven and Hamburg with Zeebrugge and Hamburg suffering a decrease in incoming volumes in March, while Antwerp enjoyed double-digit increases.

"We are now back to the levels last seen in early 2008 and we expect the monthly flows to continue to outperform last year's volumes," said Ben Hackett, principal of Hackett Associates.

But Mr Hackett said freight rates remain weak because world trade this year is projected to grow only in single digits while vessel capacity grows in double-digits.

"One can expect laying up ships in the coming months," he said. "Oil and food price increases are taking their toll on consumer demand for goods."

Import volumes for March were up 8.6 per cent year on year and six per cent month to month. Export volumes for March were, at one million TEU, up 16.1 per cent on February and 7.8 per cent higher year on year.

Import volumes are expected to produce monthly year-on-year gains, but exports are expected to be flat month to month though still posting year-on-year growth.

Double-digit year-on-year percentile advances are expected in three of the next four quarters for north Europe and in two quarters for the Mediterranean and Black Sea ports too.

Robust growth is expected of Hamburg on the back of increasing transshipments to the Baltic, especially in the second half of 2011.