Container shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may resume under the US-Iran agreement, but full recovery of supply chains will take at least three months, reports Xeneta.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand stated that the deal should be approached with caution, noting that 10 percent of global container capacity remains disrupted and freight rates are surging across major trades.

Before the crisis, 99 services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf with a capacity of 3.2 million TEU. Currently, only 11 services remain active, representing 74,000 TEU, while 470 ships have been diverted.

Spot rates have surged by 192 percent on Asia-US West Coast trades, 158 percent to the US East Coast, and 106 percent into Northern Europe. Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of anticipated bunker fuel surcharges in July.

The agreement establishes a 30-day window for minesweeping operations, meaning safe transit cannot resume immediately. Mr. Sand indicated that rates will continue to climb until the strait is fully open, which could take four weeks or longer.

Recovery is expected to occur in three phases: the extraction of trapped ships and crew, the return of feeder services, and the cautious reintroduction of long-haul Asia-Europe and Asia-North America routes.

Even after recovery, carriers are expected to favor regional feeder services over direct long-haul calls to build resilience against future disruptions in the Gulf.