Despite a ceasefire, maritime traffic in the Middle East remains stagnant, with stranded vessels prioritized over new voyages.
Ship tracking data reveals that news of a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East has not yet brought significant movement to maritime traffic in one of the world's most critical energy transit points.
A last-minute two-week temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran has prevented a large-scale escalation. The agreement, brokered by Pakistan, was announced just 10 minutes before the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The sector is cautious: Priority is on stranded vessels.
Although the agreement presents an important diplomatic opportunity, the maritime sector is responding to developments with caution. Since the onset of conflicts on February 28, approximately 1,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers have been stranded in the region due to the Iranian blockade.
According to industry representatives, the priority is to safely evacuate the vessels trapped in the Gulf rather than to initiate new voyages.
Oil prices have dropped, but no normalization at sea.
Following the ceasefire news, oil markets reacted quickly. Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 12%, dropping below $100. However, no corresponding normalization in maritime traffic has been observed.
Iran has conditioned the transit of vessels on coordination with its armed forces, indicating that Tehran wants to maintain control over the strait.
Experts: Exits may increase, entries will remain limited.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, stated that vessels are expected to exit the Persian Gulf, but entries will be more cautious.
BIMCO Chief Analyst Niels Rasmussen expressed that unless the ceasefire is extended, a heavy flow of vessels into the region is not anticipated. According to Rasmussen, many vessels have diverted to different routes, and the risk of becoming stranded again influences this cautious approach.
IMO and the sector are working for safe passage.
International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez announced that efforts are ongoing with relevant parties to ensure the safe passage of vessels.
International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) Secretary-General Thomas Kazakos emphasized the urgent need to return to free navigation.
Market uncertainty continues.
Analysts indicate that the return of Iranian oil to the market is a long-term possibility, while operational disruptions are expected to continue in the short term.
According to analysts at SEB bank, it will take time for production to fully resume, and the current inefficiencies will continue to support the tanker market.
This is not normalization, but a temporary pause.
The ongoing reports of attacks from the region highlight the fragile nature of the ceasefire.
Security experts view Iran's condition of 'coordination' for transits as a controlled system rather than free passage. Martin Kelly from EOS Marine described the current situation as 'not normalization, but a temporary pause.'
Ahead of the talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday, the maritime sector is cautiously optimistic.
The next two weeks will determine whether the approximately 1,000 vessels waiting in the region will return to open seas or enter a new period of uncertainty.
Source: SeaNews Türkiye
