Analysts report resilient crude demand despite geopolitical crises, with supply challenges expected by 2050, as discussed at a New York conference.
Oil markets have shown less sensitivity to geopolitical crises in recent years, with crude demand remaining resilient, analysts told the Hellenic American Norwegian American conference in New York, reports the UK's Seatrade Maritime News.
Rystad Energy consultant Dane Ingles stated that oil prices have faced the greatest uncertainty in decades; however, markets did not react strongly to events such as the Ukraine conflict, Red Sea attacks, or Israel's strikes on Iran. He attributed this stability to Middle East suppliers and US shale producers being able to ramp up output quickly to dampen volatility.
Ingles forecast that fossil fuel demand will remain higher for longer, with crude supply potentially falling short by 2050. He pointed to a possible gap of 50 million barrels per day between high demand scenarios and available supply, noting limited growth prospects outside the Middle East.
He also indicated that tanker markets will shift, with declining crude volumes but rising product shipments. Approximately 60 to 65 percent of volumes are expected to come from the Middle East, with 85 percent of imports bound for China and the Far East.
A Veson Nautical webinar highlighted sanctions as a factor reducing vessel supply. Analyst Thomas Zwick noted that demand continues to outpace supply, with Q2 2026 time charter equivalents forecasted at more than US$70,000 daily for VLCCs, just under US$50,000 for Aframaxes, and about US$18,000 for medium range (MR) tankers.
Mr. Zwick cautioned that ton-mile demand, which has outpaced volume and tanker supply growth in recent years, is beginning to normalize.
