Alphaliner: Newbuild deliveries up ship capacity to 24.05 million TEU

ALPHALINER forecasts the global container shipping fleet will expand by 3

21 January 2020 - 19:00

ALPHALINER forecasts the global container shipping fleet will expand by 3.5 per cent this year from 23.23 million TEU at the beginning of 2020 to 24.05 million TEU by year-end.

The annual fleet growth will mainly be driven by the scheduled deliveries of 1.14 million TEU of newbuilds this year, with only minimal slippage expected, reported New York's FreightWaves.

'Most of the larger vessels newbuildings will likely be delivered on schedule and delays are only expected for some of the smaller tonnage aimed at the domestic trades. Scrapping and other deletions are expected to reach 300,000 TEU this year, an increase from the 207,500 TEU recorded in 2019,' said Alphaliner.

While the scrapping rate is likely to remain slow in the first half of the year, the pace is anticipated to pick up in the second half.

'The scrubber retrofit wave, which had taken more than one million TEU of capacity out of circulation at the end of 2019, is expected to continue through all of the first half of the year,' the analyst said.

'It will gradually subside in the second half of 2020, as more ships complete their retrofit programmes.

'The vessels' return to service will eventually see some older and less efficient ships sent to the scrapyards,' Alphaliner said.

Effective fleet growth, excluding the inactive fleet, currently stands at 0.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis. According to Alphaliner, this is significantly lower than the total fleet growth of four per cent due to the large number of inactive ships.

'Together, ships currently under retrofit and those queuing at anchorage and waiting to be retrofitted, presently account for some 75 per cent of the 1.41 million TEU of inactive tonnage,' Alphaliner said.


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