AIRBUS has trimmed its 20-year outlook for freighter demand, while tipping it more in favour of newly built aircraft and the replacement market, reports London's Air Cargo News.
The airframer's latest global market forecast predicts demand for 2,470 freighters by 2043, a slight reduction from last year's figure of 2,510.
This comes as the company has also reduced its outlook for cargo demand growth between 2024-2044, cutting it to 3.1 per cent per year compared with 3.2 per cent in its last projection.
But airbus expects the world freighter fleet to increase from the current 2,220 to 3,360 over the period, partly through higher retention of current aircraft - some 890 against the previous estimate of 720.
'New-build freighters have very long service lives,' said head of market analysis Bob Lange.
Airbus's figures indicate the delivery demand will comprise more new-build aircraft, some 940, and fewer converted aircraft, around 1,530, than previously expected.
The balance has shifted more towards higher capacity freighters of 80 tonne payload and more, accounting for 620 aircraft, and away from the smaller 10-40t single-aisle models which will total 970.
Airbus also sees 54 per cent of the freighter deliveries intended for replacement, rather than growth, a higher proportion than the previous forecast's 50.5 per cent.
Mr Lange said that, over the last 20 years, there has been a 'much faster' growth of trade relative to GDP and that, after this long period of accelerated globalization, trade is 'converging' towards GDP.
Airbus figures show that between 2023-2024 world trade is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent per year and GDP at 2.6 per cent. This compares with 4.1 per cent (trade) and 2.9 per cent (GDP) between 2003 and 2023.
While only 1 per cent of freight is carried by air, he says, it accounts for 30 per cent of freight value.
Mr Lange said the freight market will more than double over the next two decades led by the express segment, which has an annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent against general cargo's 2.7 per cent.years later.
SeaNews Turkey
The airframer's latest global market forecast predicts demand for 2,470 freighters by 2043, a slight reduction from last year's figure of 2,510.
This comes as the company has also reduced its outlook for cargo demand growth between 2024-2044, cutting it to 3.1 per cent per year compared with 3.2 per cent in its last projection.
But airbus expects the world freighter fleet to increase from the current 2,220 to 3,360 over the period, partly through higher retention of current aircraft - some 890 against the previous estimate of 720.
'New-build freighters have very long service lives,' said head of market analysis Bob Lange.
Airbus's figures indicate the delivery demand will comprise more new-build aircraft, some 940, and fewer converted aircraft, around 1,530, than previously expected.
The balance has shifted more towards higher capacity freighters of 80 tonne payload and more, accounting for 620 aircraft, and away from the smaller 10-40t single-aisle models which will total 970.
Airbus also sees 54 per cent of the freighter deliveries intended for replacement, rather than growth, a higher proportion than the previous forecast's 50.5 per cent.
Mr Lange said that, over the last 20 years, there has been a 'much faster' growth of trade relative to GDP and that, after this long period of accelerated globalization, trade is 'converging' towards GDP.
Airbus figures show that between 2023-2024 world trade is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent per year and GDP at 2.6 per cent. This compares with 4.1 per cent (trade) and 2.9 per cent (GDP) between 2003 and 2023.
While only 1 per cent of freight is carried by air, he says, it accounts for 30 per cent of freight value.
Mr Lange said the freight market will more than double over the next two decades led by the express segment, which has an annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent against general cargo's 2.7 per cent.years later.
SeaNews Turkey
