THE surge in air cargo volume observed at the end of 2023 has extended into what is typically a quieter shipping period, reports New York's FreightWaves.
Several factors contribute to this unusual trend, including retailers replenishing inventories, an earlier Chinese New Year, heightened demand for flowers ahead of Valentine's Day, and longer ocean transits due to vessel diversions away from the Red Sea shortcut amid rebel attacks.
January saw a growth of 10 per cent year on year in demand, defying the usual post-holiday slowdown, as reported by researchers Xeneta and WorldACD.
Data from other providers indicate that tonnage and rates continued to rise marginally during the first week of February.
However, while certain regions are experiencing robust growth, the global average is influenced by varying degrees of demand increases.
It's worth noting that this year benefits from a favorable comparison to January 2023, when growth occurred from a relatively low base, and Chinese New Year fell earlier, commencing on February 10.
Chinese exporters typically accelerate shipments a couple of weeks before the holiday shutdown, resulting in minimal airfreight movement from China in January 2023.
This positive momentum has built on the trend since early September, with volumes experiencing the largest year-on-year increase in two years, about 10 per cent.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted a 1.9 per cent decline in air freight traffic for the full year, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 3.8 per cent decrease, driven by a market surge following nearly 18 months of decline.
Forecasts for air freight growth in 2024 range from two per cent to five per cent, although the ongoing addition of passenger widebody capacity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as airlines readjust post-pandemic, is expected to impact load factors and rates.
Xeneta reported a decrease in airliner space utilisation to 56 per cent in January, down three points.
According to IATA's latest report, global cargo capacity increased 11.3 per cent compared to the previous year by the end of 2023.
Passenger belly space expanded 36 per cent throughout the year, while capacity from all-cargo aircraft experienced a marginal decrease.
Despite a slight dip at the beginning of the year, rates have climbed in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year. The decrease in air freight prices stands at 23 per cent, compared to 29 per cent a month prior, representing a slowdown in the rate of decline from 38 per cent in January 2023.
Notably, outbound lanes from Hong Kong and Shanghai to Europe have seen significant rate increases, likely influenced by disruptions in ocean traffic via the Red Sea, with rates nearing last year's levels.
Expectations suggest a decline in prices as demand for ocean and air freight diminishes post-Lunar New Year. Some freighter flights to China and Taiwan have been halted during the production pause, with demand anticipated to rise once Chinese factories resume operations around February 26.
However, March typically marks the slow season for container shipping, alleviating pressure on cargo owners to opt for air transport.
SeaNews Turkey
Several factors contribute to this unusual trend, including retailers replenishing inventories, an earlier Chinese New Year, heightened demand for flowers ahead of Valentine's Day, and longer ocean transits due to vessel diversions away from the Red Sea shortcut amid rebel attacks.
January saw a growth of 10 per cent year on year in demand, defying the usual post-holiday slowdown, as reported by researchers Xeneta and WorldACD.
Data from other providers indicate that tonnage and rates continued to rise marginally during the first week of February.
However, while certain regions are experiencing robust growth, the global average is influenced by varying degrees of demand increases.
It's worth noting that this year benefits from a favorable comparison to January 2023, when growth occurred from a relatively low base, and Chinese New Year fell earlier, commencing on February 10.
Chinese exporters typically accelerate shipments a couple of weeks before the holiday shutdown, resulting in minimal airfreight movement from China in January 2023.
This positive momentum has built on the trend since early September, with volumes experiencing the largest year-on-year increase in two years, about 10 per cent.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted a 1.9 per cent decline in air freight traffic for the full year, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 3.8 per cent decrease, driven by a market surge following nearly 18 months of decline.
Forecasts for air freight growth in 2024 range from two per cent to five per cent, although the ongoing addition of passenger widebody capacity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as airlines readjust post-pandemic, is expected to impact load factors and rates.
Xeneta reported a decrease in airliner space utilisation to 56 per cent in January, down three points.
According to IATA's latest report, global cargo capacity increased 11.3 per cent compared to the previous year by the end of 2023.
Passenger belly space expanded 36 per cent throughout the year, while capacity from all-cargo aircraft experienced a marginal decrease.
Despite a slight dip at the beginning of the year, rates have climbed in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year. The decrease in air freight prices stands at 23 per cent, compared to 29 per cent a month prior, representing a slowdown in the rate of decline from 38 per cent in January 2023.
Notably, outbound lanes from Hong Kong and Shanghai to Europe have seen significant rate increases, likely influenced by disruptions in ocean traffic via the Red Sea, with rates nearing last year's levels.
Expectations suggest a decline in prices as demand for ocean and air freight diminishes post-Lunar New Year. Some freighter flights to China and Taiwan have been halted during the production pause, with demand anticipated to rise once Chinese factories resume operations around February 26.
However, March typically marks the slow season for container shipping, alleviating pressure on cargo owners to opt for air transport.
SeaNews Turkey
