Some 124 vessels are expected to enter the oil tanker trading fleet in 2014, while 60 tankers were forecast to be sold for demolition or conversion, according to the latest report by McQuilling Partners.
Through 3Q 2014, based on the forecast, 93 vessels should have delivered to the fleet and 60 tankers should have exited the fleet. Actual proprietary data shows that 79 vessels have delivered – 17% below original expectations and 64 vessels have exited, which not only exceeds the group’s year-to-date forecast, but the full year-forecast as well, McQuilling reports.
There has been limited net fleet growth in the larger crude tanker segments. VLCCs posted a net fleet growth of four through September, while Suezmaxes have had no fleet growth thus far.
The Aframax and Panamax fleets have both seen a slim down this year as the Aframaxes have shed 14 ships and Panamaxes one. Clean product tankers, for the most part, have also seen either negative or barely any fleet growth, with the exception of the MR2 class. Through September, MR2s (IMO III) posted a net fleet growth of 28 ships.
While the tanker markets can still be considered oversupplied, McQuilling says the past nine months have certainly shed a positive light on fleet supply for owners and it seems they have heeded the advice of other market participants.