US goods consumption fell only one month amid Covid: sea-intelligence
AN examination of US trade data shows that the growth in goods consumption only saw a decline for a single month in 2020 as a result of the Covid crisis, says Copenhagen's sea-intelligence
13 May 2021 - 19:00
After which positive growth rates resumed, as shown after and analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for March 2021, said the research house.
'This is quite different for consumption on services, where growth rates were negative for 12 consecutive months, until finally the year-on-year growth rate became positive in March 2021,' said sea-intelligence's weekly bulletin, Sunday Spotlight
'As we progress into the first half of the year, this year-on-year comparison becomes misleading, as we are effectively comparing against the sharp downwards impact of the pandemic in 2020,' said the research note.
'We have therefore re-calculated the growth in personal consumption for 2021 versus the same months in 2019 and from this calculated the average annual growth rate. We can see that the components of the growth are very much out of alignment with the past norm. In this perspective, the current situation related to goods consumption is equivalent to a spending which
'This is very high, as the five years leading up to the pandemic saw growth rates typically in the 3.5-4 per cent range. Conversely, it can also be seen that from this perspective, spending on services remains in negative territory. Looking further back, spending on services in March 2021 is also lower than spending seen in March 2018, as well as March 2017,' said the note.
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