The Outlook for Global Markets Is Not Bright; Tariff Wars Cast a Heavy Shadow
The SteelOrbis 2025 Spring Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting was held between April 27–29 at the Athenaeum Intercontinental Athens Hotel with platinum sponsorship from İÇDAŞ and saw the participation of nearly 500 attendees. Other sponsors included Ekinciler Iron and Steel Industries, Inc., Hellenic Halyvourgia, Sidenor, Belgian Scrap Terminal NV, Almet Holding, Aymas Recycling Machinery, Eurobend, QSS Quality Service and Survey, DNA PC Strand, Link Inspection, and Monow International.
IREPAS Chairman Murat Cebecioğlu opened the conference by emphasizing that the markets were under the influence of an unprecedented wave of protectionist tariffs, creating new uncertainties. He noted that the current outlook was bleak and competition was fierce.
In the first session, Alexander Gordienko, Export Director of Spain-based CELSA Group, pointed out that regionalization in global trade, geopolitical risks, and inconsistent carbon policies were turning market fluctuations into structural challenges.
Following him, Nikos Vettas, founder of IOBE and a professor at the University of Athens, said that the current uncertainty caused by trade policies was even greater than what was experienced during the pandemic. He warned that the whole system could eventually collapse, weakening global trade and increasing protectionism.
In the second session, Su Changyong, Deputy Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association and Vice Chairman of the Steel Council of the China Global Trade Council, forecasted that global steel exports would weaken in 2025 due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., resulting in a decline in export tonnage. On the other hand, Changyong argued that China should continue exporting steel at a certain volume to meet global demand and test the quality and competitiveness of Chinese steel products in the global market.
In the panel “Trump’s Trade Policy and EU Reactions,” speakers underlined that steel trade was under intense pressure from tariff wars. Trade lawyer and partner at ArentFox Schiff LLP, Matthew Nolan, stated that market volatility could not last forever and the U.S. would have to find an alternative approach to sustain its trade measures. Nikolay Mizulin, Director and Co-Chair of International Trade at Mayer Brown, added that global trade barriers were causing the steel industry to become increasingly fragmented.
Bülent Hacıoğlu, Managing Partner of Trade Resources, noted that in the EU, negative dumping margins were no longer being considered, and the abolition of the “lesser duty rule” meant higher dumping duties were on the horizon. Jamie Mcleod, a director at consultancy firm Crowe U.K. LLP, said that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) would bring billions of euros in revenue to the bloc. He added that the EU was taking steps to simplify CBAM but this did not mean the rules would be relaxed.
Raw Material Suppliers Committee: Market to Slow Further in Second Half
Jens Björkman, Chairman of the Raw Material Suppliers Committee and representative from Stena Metal International, predicted that the market would slow down even more in the second half of the year. He also mentioned the EU's plans to restrict scrap exports, stating that although current demand for scrap in the region is low, such restrictions would create pressure on the steel industry while providing a more stable ground for scrap trade.
Producers Committee: Market in a State of Uncertainty Due to Tariffs
Producers Committee Chairman Murat Cebecioğlu said that trade has become more difficult due to the tariff-related uncertainty in global markets. He noted that prices were near the bottom, and suppliers targeting the same markets would have to cut prices to compete with China. The IREPAS Chairman stated that billet was a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of pricing, and as long as prices remain at these levels, Turkey would continue to purchase billet. Even though delivery times from Asia are 2–3 times longer, billet remains much more profitable. He also said that with the situation in Syria gradually normalizing, producers in southern Turkey might have better export opportunities.
Traders Committee: No Recovery Expected in General Market Conditions
F.D. Baysal, Chairman of the Traders Committee from Seba International, said that the removal of Section 232 exemptions by the U.S. could benefit some countries already subject to the 25% tariff. However, he added that due to economic uncertainty and market stagnation, there would be no recovery in overall market conditions. Commenting on the EU, Baysal noted that some quota tonnages had been reduced, making trade more difficult. Regarding China, he said he did not expect a decline in the country's exports.
