US IMPORT cargo volume at major container ports is expected to climb toward an August peak, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
But even though a tentative contract agreement has been reached at west coast ports, retailers are closely following labour disputes at ports in western Canada and a potential teamsters strike against United Parcel Service.
'We were relieved that labour and management at west coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month but that doesn't mean supply chain disruptions are over,' said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.
'The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn't have a major impact here but could affect some US retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports,' he said.
Moving goods from US ports to stores could be challenging if UPS and the Teamsters do not settle their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month, Mr Gold said.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that first-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised upward to two per cent, consumer demand is stable, and consumers have continued to spend while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories.
Said Mr Hackett: 'These numbers together point toward another quarter of economic growth, which should confirm that the prospect of a recession is looking less likely.'
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.93 million TEU in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.5 per cent from April but down 19.3 per cent year on year.
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.86 million TEU, down 17.5 per cent year on year. That would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEU, down 22 per cent from the first half of 2022.
July is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 11 per cent year over year, and August is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, down 10.1 per cent year on year but the first month since last October to reach two million TEU. September is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4 per cent; October at 1.97 million TEU, down 1.8 per cent, and November at 1.88 million TEU, up 5.9 per cent for the first year-on-year increase since June 2022.
Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 5.9 million TEU, down 8.3 per cent from last year, and the first nine months of the year should total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.6 per cent year on year. Imports for all of 2022 totalled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Canada's Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren't included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States, but the two ports handled over 185,000 TEU in May. That accounted for nine per cent of combined US-Canadian container imports at ports covered by the full Global Port Tracker report.
Global Port Tracker covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the west coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
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But even though a tentative contract agreement has been reached at west coast ports, retailers are closely following labour disputes at ports in western Canada and a potential teamsters strike against United Parcel Service.
'We were relieved that labour and management at west coast ports reached a tentative agreement last month but that doesn't mean supply chain disruptions are over,' said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.
'The port strike affecting Vancouver and Prince Rupert shouldn't have a major impact here but could affect some US retailers whose merchandise comes in through Canada and could have a potential ripple effect at other ports,' he said.
Moving goods from US ports to stores could be challenging if UPS and the Teamsters do not settle their differences before their contract expires at the end of the month, Mr Gold said.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that first-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised upward to two per cent, consumer demand is stable, and consumers have continued to spend while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories.
Said Mr Hackett: 'These numbers together point toward another quarter of economic growth, which should confirm that the prospect of a recession is looking less likely.'
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.93 million TEU in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 8.5 per cent from April but down 19.3 per cent year on year.
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.86 million TEU, down 17.5 per cent year on year. That would bring the first half of 2023 to 10.6 million TEU, down 22 per cent from the first half of 2022.
July is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 11 per cent year over year, and August is forecast at 2.03 million TEU, down 10.1 per cent year on year but the first month since last October to reach two million TEU. September is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4 per cent; October at 1.97 million TEU, down 1.8 per cent, and November at 1.88 million TEU, up 5.9 per cent for the first year-on-year increase since June 2022.
Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total 5.9 million TEU, down 8.3 per cent from last year, and the first nine months of the year should total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.6 per cent year on year. Imports for all of 2022 totalled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Canada's Vancouver and Prince Rupert aren't included in those totals and not all of their cargo comes to the United States, but the two ports handled over 185,000 TEU in May. That accounted for nine per cent of combined US-Canadian container imports at ports covered by the full Global Port Tracker report.
Global Port Tracker covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the west coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
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