CONTAINERSHIP overcapacity could last to 2030 and beyond, according to Danish consultant Sea-Intelligence, reports Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.
This week forecast sees that the container segment's current level of overcapacity could take a minimum of four years.
'The market is heading into a traditional down cycle, as 2023 is seeing significant excess capacity being delivered, and in all likelihood, the same will happen in 2024,' said Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy.
His is a troubling picture for the industry in response to the questions of when the current overcapacity will come into balance and how the industry will overcome its current challenges.
Many in the industry had predicted that the worst of the collapse in rates would be overcome by late this year but looming is the question of capacity.
More people are now forecasting that the industry will be forced to turn to more aggressive disposals as slow steaming and even idling tonnage alone with not achieve balance versus the onslaught of capacity due to arrive in the next three years into the sector.
Paris-based consultant Alphaliner calculates that even after the large-scale deliveries already completed this year, the tidal wave of capacity growth is yet to come.
MSC for example has received delivery of a large portion of its mammoth 24,000-plus TEU ships, the largest in the industry, while others including OOCL, ONE, and Hapag-Lloyd have also begun to receive their new ultra large container vessels.
Alphaliner data however shows the orderbook for the top carriers still stands at seven million TEU, representing a further 25 per cent gross increase in capacity before potential dispositions for scrap.
SeaNews Turkey
This week forecast sees that the container segment's current level of overcapacity could take a minimum of four years.
'The market is heading into a traditional down cycle, as 2023 is seeing significant excess capacity being delivered, and in all likelihood, the same will happen in 2024,' said Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy.
His is a troubling picture for the industry in response to the questions of when the current overcapacity will come into balance and how the industry will overcome its current challenges.
Many in the industry had predicted that the worst of the collapse in rates would be overcome by late this year but looming is the question of capacity.
More people are now forecasting that the industry will be forced to turn to more aggressive disposals as slow steaming and even idling tonnage alone with not achieve balance versus the onslaught of capacity due to arrive in the next three years into the sector.
Paris-based consultant Alphaliner calculates that even after the large-scale deliveries already completed this year, the tidal wave of capacity growth is yet to come.
MSC for example has received delivery of a large portion of its mammoth 24,000-plus TEU ships, the largest in the industry, while others including OOCL, ONE, and Hapag-Lloyd have also begun to receive their new ultra large container vessels.
Alphaliner data however shows the orderbook for the top carriers still stands at seven million TEU, representing a further 25 per cent gross increase in capacity before potential dispositions for scrap.
SeaNews Turkey