Q3 demand for box shipping forecasts to decline slightly by 0.1pc: analyst
ANALYST Sea-Intelligence says the demand in the third quarter for container shipping is expected to contract by 0
ANALYST Sea-Intelligence says the demand in the third quarter for container shipping is expected to contract by 0.1 per cent, pulled down by the developments in July.
Sea-Intelligence said it had developed a model to predict medium-term global volume changes, based on the planned capacity supply of the carriers.
'The methodology we applied was that the net level of blank sailings serves as a direct indicator of the underlying volume developments in 2020. Our model tracks the actual developments as seen during the pandemic from February to June,' the analyst said in its latest issue of Sunday Spotlight.
CEO Sea-Intelligence Alan Murphy said: 'While volumes are still looking to decline in July year over year, we are looking at a prospective year-on-year growth in August and September. For the entire third quarter, we expect a year-on-year demand contraction, but by a marginal -O.1%, pulled down by the developments in July.'
He added: 'While this may seem counter-intuitive in a pandemic, there are some factors that we believe are at play here. First is a shift in consumption patterns away from services to physical goods, which would give rise to a need for stockpiling a large volume of goods different to what were previously sold.
'Second, restrictions of travelling and regular outings would potentially fund a higher spending on consumer products. Lastly, a change in working conditions necessitating a work-from-home approach has also driven consumer behaviour towards purchases for furnishing home offices.'