WHILE Drewry Maritime Research forecasts five to six per cent container shipping growth in next few years, and Maersk chief Nils Andersen predicts much the same, a new methodology has been devised that produces more optimistic conclusions.
New optimism comes from independent box analyst Daniel Schaefer who's new study notes an acceleration in world trade, reports Lloyd's List. Analysts, he says, must have reasonable methodologies, and that's what has been missing from conventional projections.
Mr Schaefer criticised the so-called GDP multiplier method, in which growth rates are determined by GDP forecasts, combined with other factors. GDP multipliers, he says, often vary and all too often produce misleading results.
Instead, Mr Schaefer correlates container throughput data with the imports and exports of global manufacturers to calculate what the future will hold.
Using his method Mr Schaefer expects global container throughput of 650 million TEU in 2013 to achieve compound annual growth rates of 6.1 per cent or 985 million TEU by 2020.
But regional growth, he said, will differ with China still leading the pack, handling a third of the world's container traffic.
While China growth has slowed, it remains above the global average at 6.5 per cent. Mr Schaefer expects China volume to rise to 340 million TEU by 2020, more than half of today's total.
The fastest-growing countries are Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and India, he said.
Middle East traffic is also expected to achieve above average growth as volumes are robust because of the strength of Mideast hubs near the Suez Canal.
"The share of interline transshipment might have reached its feasible level, but the Asian-European traffic is expected to be revived and eastern Arabia's economic outlook is also promising," he said.
In Africa, he said, much depends on whether several planned sub-Saharan container terminals go ahead that could stimulate trade in the region.
"Nonetheless, throughput is projected to increase from a relative low level, because infrastructure in is still poor and 250 million people live in landlocked countries," he says.
Box volumes in the Americas have grown well below the global average lately, reflecting a stagnant US market.
But with the US economy improving, box volume is expected to rise from 94 million TEU to 133 million TEU.
European port box growth over the last five years has stood at three per cent, which he expects to 4.8 per cent to 152 million TEU.