"The continuing delivery of vessels ordered several years ago is likely to have a significant impact on the competitive dynamics, as some carriers are left with no option but the pursuit of market share in the next couple of years," said SeaIntel CEO Alan Murphy.
"HMM, Hapag Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk Line, and Yang Ming all have orderbooks which constitute less than 20 per cent of their charter fleets, which indicates a strong degree of strategic flexibility to match capacity injections with redelivery of charter tonnage, if capacity growth exceeds demand growth," he said.
"ONE is in a difficult position with a orderbook to charter ratio of 30 per cent, making absorbing new capacity based on organic market growth extremely challenging," said Mr Murphy.
"Cosco and Evergreen however, are at the opposite end of the spectrum with very large orderbooks. Unless we see exceptionally high demand growth, charter redelivery will be entirely insufficient to absorb the excess capacity. They will need to either increase their market share or sell existing assets, which will be a very unattractive option, since it will have to be in the very large vessel segment as well."
"With an expected demand growth rate of four to five per cent 2M's capacity injection fits the expected market developments quite well, whereas THE Alliance can relatively easily curb the capacity injection via charter redeliveries to meet demand as well. However, the annualised growth rate for Ocean Alliance is significantly beyond the anticipated demand growth rates."
Mr Murphy concluded: "Even if a positive view of demand is adopted assuming stronger growth on the head haul east-west trades, it is exceedingly unlikely that this is sufficient to match the capacity injection by Ocean Alliance, especially if the new CMA CGM order of nine 22,000-TEU vessels is confirmed."