DREWRY Maritime Research disagrees with more optimistic forecasts that expect four to six per cent box volume growth this year by opting for a darker two per cent prediction of their own.
While noting an upturn in consumer confidence in the US and Europe, the big magnets for Asian imports, they the London research analysts interpret positive data in a gloomier way.
"Consumer confidence is not enough to generate a boom of imported products," said the Drewry report, while granting that retailers, importers, logistics providers may well expect a better year ahead.
But not containerships. "We are not seeing a new generation of bulky products (like wide-screen TVs), which will suddenly fill ships and living rooms," said Drewry analysts.
As for those cheerful February numbers, they said: "Unexpectedly full ships in February probably had a lot to do with the production disruptions of Chinese New Year and carriers' capacity reductions.
In Drewry's view, the world is not seeing a turning point in western demand for imported consumer goods.
"Better prospects" in the current environment probably means two per cent faster growth than in 2013 in ocean borne freight volumes - not a return to the 15 per cent yearly increases which the Western economies experienced until the 2007/08 global financial crisis," said Drewry.
OPINION
03 March 2014 - 23:57
'Consumer confidence alone does not make for shipping boom', says Drewry
DREWRY Maritime Research disagrees with more optimistic forecasts that expect four to six per cent box volume growth this year by opting for a darker two per cent prediction of their own.
OPINION
03 March 2014 - 23:57
'Consumer confidence alone does not make for shipping boom', says Drewry
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