The WTO indicates global merchandise trade growth may be slowing, impacted by the Middle East conflict but supported by strong demand for electronics.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) stated that global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow after demonstrating resilience in early 2026, despite disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, reports Reuters.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer suggested that the negative impact of the conflict was partly offset by strong demand for electronic components linked to artificial intelligence.
The barometer, which predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, fell from 102.3 in January to 101.7. While still above the baseline of 100, this reading indicates slower growth in merchandise trade.
In March, the WTO forecast that world trade in goods would slow sharply to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025. It warned that growth could decelerate further if the ongoing Middle East war continues to drive up energy prices and disrupt transport.
The electronic components index rose firmly above trend at 105.5, while agricultural raw materials slipped slightly below trend. Air freight and container shipping growth eased but remained above trend at 102.2 and 102.4, respectively.
On balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signaling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth, according to the WTO report.
