Vietnam's exports soared to $474 billion in 2025, driven by competitiveness and US tariffs, despite rising imports from China.
Vietnam's exports surged to US$474 billion in 2025, up nearly $70 billion from the previous year, despite facing 20 percent US tariffs and competition from China, reported Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.
Analysts stated that Vietnam's competitiveness and the substitution of Chinese goods in the US market are driving this growth. While some exports involve transshipped Chinese goods or components, studies suggest that most gains reflect genuine trade relocation and domestic value addition.
Imports from China rose sharply by 30 percent to $186 billion, fueling speculation about reliance on Chinese inputs. However, experts noted that stronger Vietnamese domestic demand, which increased by eight percent in 2025, and the need for inputs for exports to non-US markets explain much of this increase.
Total imports grew by 19 percent, broadly in line with exports at 17 percent, indicating that Vietnam's domestic value-addition role remains intact. Imports from other countries rose more slowly, at 13 percent, suggesting that China's share is expanding at the expense of suppliers such as South Korea.
Broader benefits mirror those seen after the first US-China trade war. Manufacturing GDP grew by 10 percent, 265,000 industrial jobs were added, agricultural employment declined, and monthly wages rose by six percent. Foreign direct investment remained strong, with industrial upgrading evident in consumer electronics, which grew by 21 percent, and new projects in semiconductors and electric vehicles.
Much of this success reflects Vietnam's own reforms and global trade integration. However, risks remain from potential US clampdowns on indirect Chinese exports, further tariffs, or a global downturn. For now, Vietnam appears to be winning the trade wars.
