Venezuela would require US

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83 billion in investment over 15 years to bring crude oil production back to three million barrels per day by 2040, according to Rystad Energy, reports the American Journal of Transportation.

The consultancy stated that US$53 billion is needed just to maintain output at 1.1 million bpd. Only 300,000 bpd could be restored within two to three years with limited spending. Raising production beyond 1.4 million bpd would necessitate US$8-9 billion annually from 2026 to 2040, in addition to maintenance capital.

Venezuela's national oil company, PDVSA, could finance part of the investment; however, at least US$30-35 billion of international capital must be committed in the next three years to make the three million bpd target plausible. Rystad estimates that output could reach two million bpd by 2032 and three million bpd by 2040.

Venezuela's oil history saw production peak at 3.5 million bpd in 1970 and again above three million bpd in the late 1990s. Nationalization under Hugo Chavez in 2006 forced foreign operators to cede majority control to PDVSA, leading to asset seizures and exits by ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies, and Equinor.

Sanctions and market downturns cut output to 580,000 bpd in 2020, though production has since recovered past one million bpd. Heavy crude now accounts for 70 percent of supply, compared with 30-40 percent in the 1990s. Rystad stated that restoring production to three million bpd would require US

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02 billion in upstream spending and US$81 billion for pipelines and infrastructure.