Global trade is set to exceed $35 trillion by 2025, growing 7%, according to UNCTAD, despite challenges in the global economy.
Global trade in goods and services is projected to exceed US$35 trillion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 7%, as reported by Saint Petersburg's Port News.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicated that this forecast represents an increase of roughly $2.2 trillion over 2024, despite a slowdown in momentum late in the year. Trade expanded by 2.5 percent between July and September, with goods rising nearly 2 percent and services increasing by about 4 percent.
For the final quarter of 2024, UNCTAD anticipates goods to grow by 0.5 percent and services by 2 percent, suggesting annual increases of $1.5 trillion and $750 billion, respectively. The agency noted a shift from price-driven to volume-led growth as goods prices begin to ease.
East Asia and Africa experienced the strongest gains, with East Asia's exports rising approximately 9 percent, bolstered by a 10 percent increase in intra-regional trade. Meanwhile, Africa's imports climbed by 10 percent and exports by 6 percent, with China, the Republic of Korea, Brazil, and South Africa identified as key drivers of this growth.
Globally, manufacturing output traded rose by 10 percent year-on-year, with electronics experiencing a 14 percent increase. Agriculture also grew by 8 percent in the third quarter, particularly in cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports, each up by 11 percent. However, energy-related trade weakened due to falling fossil-fuel values, and critical-minerals trade saw a sharp decline. Motor-vehicle trade decreased by 4 percent, although hybrids rose in popularity while electric-vehicle values slipped slightly.
UNCTAD reported a renewed momentum in friendshoring and nearshoring, with trade between politically aligned partners surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Goods-trade imbalances remain significant, with China's surplus increasing by $30 billion year-on-year, while the United States recorded a slight narrowing of its deficit.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD anticipates slower growth due to weak global activity, fragmentation, policy uncertainty, and elevated costs. High debt levels in developing economies and ongoing supply-chain restructuring are expected to weigh on trade.
However, supportive factors include expanding South-South trade, stronger consumer demand in emerging markets, rapid growth in digital and AI industries, and lower borrowing costs as central banks reduce interest rates. UNCTAD noted that these factors will help cushion the slowdown, but will not fully offset it.
Established in 1964 and headquartered in Geneva, UNCTAD is a permanent UN body with 195 member states. It conducts analytical work, consensus-building, and technical assistance on trade, investment, and technology.
