Research by Italian consultancy Prometeia shows that despite escalating tariffs, the United States and China remain closely linked through Asian intermediaries, reports Tokyo's FinTech Global. The study suggests that while trade flows have shifted geographically, the underlying economic ties endure.

In 2025, the Trump administration intensified tariff measures against Beijing, aiming to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. Direct Chinese exports to the US fell by 20 percent, but this decline was offset by a 30 percent rise in US imports from Vietnam, India, Thailand, and Hong Kong. At the same time, Chinese exports to those countries rose by 12 percent, indicating that goods continued to originate from Chinese networks.

Electronics accounted for about 60 percent of the decline in bilateral trade, with computers, smartphones, and telecommunications equipment being the most affected. Vietnam emerged as a key assembly hub but remained reliant on China for advanced components, meaning much of the value added still flowed from Chinese industry.

By 2025, the US sourced 13 percent of imports directly from China, while 23 percent came from other Asian economies. China directed 37 percent of its exports to Asia, which rose to 50 percent for electronics. Prometeia warned that this fragmentation may disguise the continuity of industrial ties rather than signal genuine decoupling.

The consultancy concluded that disrupting trade flows does not necessarily disrupt economic relationships. In Asia's integrated production ecosystem, trade war policies may reshape commerce routes without altering who produces goods or for whom.