US tariffs on Chinese goods and the removal of the US$800 de minimis exemption have sharply disrupted transpacific air freight, reported London's Air Cargo Week.
US tariffs on Chinese goods and the removal of the US$800 de minimis exemption have sharply disrupted transpacific air freight, reported London's Air Cargo Week.
E-commerce volumes fell by 50-60 per cent in 2025, prompting a shift from air to bulk sea freight, longer supply chains, and redeployment of freighters to alternative routes. Major US airports saw a 30 per cent drop in freighter arrivals, underscoring operational and employment impacts.
Cassel Salpeter & Co director Joey Smith said the decline stems from tariffs and the loss of the exemption, which previously allowed low-value shipments to bypass duties. Platforms such as Alibaba, Shein and Temu have shifted toward sea freight, elongating supply chains by weeks.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) cut its air cargo growth forecast from 5.8 per cent to near zero, citing tariffs, geopolitical tensions, inflation and weaker consumer confidence. The end of exemptions under the 1980 Civil Aircraft Agreement has also raised costs across the aviation supply chain.
North America recorded the steepest contraction, with trans-Pacific volumes down 25 per cent year-on-year through May 2025. Airlines are adapting by redeploying fleets, diversifying routes, and leveraging data analytics, partnerships and nearshoring trends to manage costs and maintain profitability.
Passenger carriers with belly cargo may benefit, as freight can contribute up to 30 per cent of route profitability. However, competition and pricing pressures remain intense.
Mr Smith said monitoring e-commerce growth, consumer habits, industrial output, fuel prices, and trade policy will be key to assessing whether the market moves toward recovery or faces further disruption into 2026.
