A report by trade software vendor Altana indicates that the US lost US$40 billion in tariff revenue in 2025 as Chinese-origin goods were rerouted through Mexico and Canada under USMCA rules, reported New York's Journal of Commerce.

Altana stated that shipment-level data and a survey of 91 US trade professionals showed that declining direct China-US flows morphed into multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico to qualify under USMCA. The company contends that this activity is illegal under US customs rules.

Direct China-US trade from January to October 2025 fell 28 percent to $276.5 billion compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Vietnam-Mexico trade rose 46 percent to $18.1 billion, Thailand-Mexico trade increased by 19 percent, and Malaysia-Mexico trade grew by 13 percent. Additionally, Mexico-US imports climbed six percent to $450.5 billion.

Altana reported that transactions on pre-existing transshipment routes ending in the USMCA bloc rose 76 percent year over year through the first ten months of 2025. Suspected transactions surged from $2.2 billion per month in early 2025 to $31.5 billion by December.

The report noted that vehicles, machinery, and electronics were the most represented in these paths. It warned that Chinese-origin vehicles, subject to duties as high as 152 percent, could be rerouted through Mexican facilities and enter at preferential USMCA rates if rules of origin were applied.

Altana emphasized that the issue hinges on whether meaningful transformation occurred at Mexican stops and whether transshipment facilities accurately record regional value content and upstream component data needed to calculate tariff rates.

The Trump administration in 2025 stated that US Customs would scrutinize goods using intermediate countries to evade tariffs. Altana concluded that non-compliant rerouting accelerated with each tariff escalation.