Shipping confidence hits 3-year high, but oversupply concerns linger

Shipping confidence hits 3-year high, but oversupply concerns linger THE latest shipping confidence survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens shows that overall confidence in the shipping industry rose to its highest level for more than three years over the three-month period to November 2013.

But despite encouraging news on freight rates and evidence of an increased willingness to invest, the survey also showed concerns persist over excess capacity afloat, operating and regulatory costs.

 In November the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 6.1 on a scale of 1 to 10, compared to the 5.9 recorded in the previous survey in August 2013. This is the highest figure since the 6.2 recorded in August 2010. The survey was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

 Despite the overall improvement in confidence, shipowners were the only category of individual respondents to post an increase this time, from 5.8 to 6.2, the highest figure recorded since May 2010. 

Confidence on the part of managers, however, was down from 6.2 to 6.1, while for charterers there was a drop from 6.3 to 5.7. Geographically, confidence was down in Asia (from 6.1 to 5.9) but up in Europe (from 5.9 to 6.1) and in North America, from 6.0 to 6.6.

 The mood of optimism apparent in a number of responses was typified by the respondent who noted: "There is, for the first time in a long while, a general feeling of optimism. 

Furthermore, worldwide economic indicators, small and large point to recovery. "We cannot expect it to reach the same levels as in 2007/2008, but a sustainable level of confidence is much better than skyrocketing markets because the higher you climb the lower you might fall," said Moore Stephens.

 One respondent was more guarded: "The shipping market will stay more or less at current levels well into next year as the world economic situation continues to fluctuate," and "the shipping industry in general is weak, though we do expect improvements in 2014."

 Others remained pessimistic: "Shipping companies are facing a number of challenges, including low market rates caused by over-tonnage in a number of sectors, slow growth in the global economy, and increases in global ship operating costs."

 Said Moore Stephens partner Richard Greiner: "The findings of this latest survey provide more good news for the shipping industry. It is now 15 months since we recorded a decline in shipping confidence. There is an old adage, which says that confidence is contagious. If that is true, shipping certainly seems to have caught the bug."