As China's National Day approaches, Maersk reports steady demand in the Asia-Pacific container shipping market, easing slowdown concerns.
As China's National Day Golden Week approaches, the Asia-Pacific container shipping market shows steady demand, alleviating previous concerns of a slowdown. In its 9 September market update, Maersk highlighted key trends shaping the current environment: advance bookings ahead of Golden Week, persistent port congestion, and Q4 volume planning. Jyske Bank Senior Analyst Haider Anjum noted these factors could continue boosting Maersk's financial performance into upcoming quarters.
Maersk urged shippers to plan shipments early, particularly for Q4 deliveries, to maintain flexibility during the busy Golden Week period. Late-September sailings were recommended to avoid holiday-related delays. Seasonal weather and port congestion remain risks, impacting vessel operations and schedules. On-time performance has declined across Asia's main ports, according to Sea-Intelligence data, further complicating planning for connected and transpacific services. Maersk has already announced schedule adjustments, including blank sailings on Far East-Europe routes (AE15, AE12, AE1) during the holiday period.
Demand normalization in the container shipping market remains elusive, as noted by Haider Anjum. Port congestion and delays are compressing effective capacity, reducing available space for cargo. This reduced capacity, coupled with stable demand, is keeping freight rates high. Declining port efficiency and weaker schedule reliability amplify capacity tightness, creating sustained upward pressure on rates. These dynamics are expected to continue into 2025.
Maersk's financial performance aligns with these market conditions. The company raised its full-year 2025 Underlying EBITDA guidance three times, now projecting USD 10.5-12.5 billion, with an Underlying EBIT of USD 4.5-6.5 billion. Global container market volume growth is forecast at 4% for 2026. Recent results show strong recovery, with Maersk's Ocean segment reporting a 4.1% year-on-year increase in Q2 loaded volumes, a 22% rise in average freight rates, and USD 935 million in Ocean EBIT. Analysts suggest current freight rate stability could lead to further upward revisions.
Freight forwarders are advised to monitor capacity availability, sailing schedules, and port operations closely during this period. Early bookings and contingency plans are essential to navigate the challenges posed by port congestion, schedule delays, and Golden Week disruptions.
