Maersk highlights potential overcapacity issues for the Gemini alliance with Hapag-Lloyd as new ships enter service and Suez Canal transits resume.
Maersk says the benefits of the Gemini alliance with Hapag-Lloyd will be challenged by industry overcapacity as new ships enter service and Suez Canal transits resume, reports London's S&P Global.
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts that the Gemini network delivered US$300 million in cost savings last year and boosted volumes. However, he warned of a projected 4-8 percent excess capacity in 2026. Clerc noted that a rapid return to Suez would intensify freight rate pressure, while a gradual reopening could ease the impact.
Maersk posted a fourth-quarter loss of $153 million in its container shipping segment, as average rates fell 23 percent to $2,046 per FEU, offsetting an eight percent rise in volume to 3.4 million FEU. Revenue dropped 8.7 percent to $13.3 billion, while EBITDA fell 49 percent to $1.8 billion.
Full-year revenue declined 2.7 percent to $54 billion, EBITDA fell 21 percent to $9.5 billion, EBIT dropped 46 percent to $3.5 billion, and net profit was down 53 percent at $2.9 billion. The carrier also announced 1,000 job cuts.
Maersk forecast a possible $1.5 billion EBIT loss in 2026, marking its first operating loss in a decade, with the top end of guidance at $1 billion. Clerc stated that Gemini savings could reach $820 million to $1.1 billion this year, driven by slower sailing speeds, shorter hub distances, and reduced bunker consumption.
Gemini also lifted APM Terminals revenue by 13 percent to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, with volume up 8.4 percent across Europe, North America, and Latin America.
Mr. Clerc mentioned that global container demand is expected to grow 2-4 percent in 2026, with Maersk volumes tracking the market. CFO Patrick Jany added that unviable capacity would eventually be scrapped or idled, predicting one to two years of pressure before supply adjusts.
