Rail freight between China and the EU fell 14.1% in 2025, with return flows at historic lows, highlighting significant trade imbalances.
Rail freight volumes between China and the European Union dropped 14.1 per cent in 2025 to 310,579 TEU, with return flows hitting historic lows, reported Milan's Trasporta Europa.
China-Europe traffic fell 17.7 per cent to 272,157 TEU, while Europe-China volumes slid 22.7 per cent to 38,422 TEU, leaving an imbalance of about 7:1 between outbound and return flows. Overall, China Railway Express moved 2.05 million TEU on 20,022 trains, down 1.3 per cent year on year.
For the first time, westbound services to China outnumbered outbound trains, driven by cargo from Russia and Central Asia. Central Asia volumes surged 27.7 per cent to 1.13 million TEU, 3.6 times the China-EU traffic, underscoring a geographical shift in demand.
Poland handled 94 per cent of eastbound flows, with Malaszewicze remaining the key hub. A border closure with Belarus in September 2025 paralyzed around 90 per cent of China-EU trains for 13 days, highlighting corridor risks.
Rail's competitiveness weakened as maritime freight rates normalized after the Red Sea crisis. Sea transport for an FEU cost US$3,000-4,000 with a transit time of 30-45 days, compared with $10,500-$12,500 for rail in 15-20 days, narrowing rail's appeal to high-value, time-sensitive goods.
Xian consolidated its role as China's leading hub, operating 6,037 trains and expanding services to Central Asia. Alashankou handled 8,165 trains, with customs clearance times cut to below sixteen hours and transshipment optimized to two hours.
European return flows remain weak, particularly in automotive exports from Germany, which fell 26 per cent in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese exports of vehicles, batteries, and photovoltaic panels increased, sustaining rail's role in select supply chains.
Alternative corridors are expanding, with Trans-Caspian services up 30 per cent and the New Western Land-Sea Corridor reaching 1.425 million TEU, up 47.6 per cent. E-commerce demand, such as Shein's new hub in Poland, may support rail volumes despite broader contraction.
